[USML Announce] DUMP DUMPING REPORT #3 - Who's Yer Daddy??

Sun Jul 9 02:08:26 EDT 2006

DUMP acknowledges and appreciates the wild praise for its reviews of the Riptorns and Bombers, but insists that it really isn?t necessary.  The exercise itself more than justifies the effort.  But given the obvious appreciation, there really is no way that the process could stop anywhere short of completion.  So, without further ado, on to the defending champs, the Hoosier Daddies.

Rick has drawn deserved praise for watching patiently as Brad Lee and the Berliners wildly flailed away in an attempt to move as many of their players as quickly as possible.  After the two of them had gathered up all the closers-in-waiting and the highly touted Double A prospects, Rick calmly stepped up to the plate and grabbed two of the best legitimate MLB-ready prospects in the American League in a blockbuster deal with the Angry Young Men.  And in this one bold move, Rick demonstrated why his 2005 Damon is almost certainly not his last (assuming Kerber ever lets him see it and/or alternatively, Kerber didn't do something nasty with it that now precludes its use as a trophy).

The two prospects in question will be the key components of the 2007 Hoosier Daddies:  Justin VERLANDER ($2, Y1) and Curtis GRANDERSON ($1, Y2).  VERLANDER is having a great season and, assuming he stays healthy, looks like a solid $15+ pitcher for the foreseeable future.  The only complaint is that you?d like to see a few more strikeouts, but there really isn?t anything not to like about this guy.  DUMP knows that King Felix and Francisco Liriano get all the hype, but believes that this guy deserves to be regarded in the very same company.  DUMP says that given the choice between King Felix ($5, Y2) and VERLANDER at $2 in Y1, it would take Verlander, without hesitation.

GRANDERSON is the epitome of the kind of ballplayer that looks better on a rotisserie roster than on a MLB roster.  But DUMP says, who the hell cares.  This guy puts up good numbers in four of five roto categories:  average (.280), home runs (8), runs (43) and rbi?s (36).  There are some minor quibbles:  he doesn?t walk enough, he strikes out too much, his on base percentage is a little light for a lead-off hitter and he doesn?t steal enough bases (4).  But he?s $1 and looks like a $15+ hitter for the next few years.  (P.S.  Gotta believe that the Bombers would love to have this guy back.  He, alone, would boost their grade up a half grade.  And to think that PT/KR was pitching ?MT? Gathright as the key to the deal last year).

But this team is built around more than merely what once resided on the AYM (and Bomber) roster.  How about the foresight to keep Jon PAPELBON?  DUMP says disregard the nonsense being spouted by Professor Klein.  Craig Hansen may get a shot at earning some of Boston?s saves some day, but no day soon.  In the meantime, Mr. PAPELBON is truly THE MAN.  And if Boston ever moves the closer role to Hansen, it will only be because PAPELBON is deemed to be too talented to only pitch 80-100 innings per year and is made into an even more valuable starter.  DUMP is interested to see how many years Mr. Gammons extends the contract, but wouldn?t be surprised to see a two-year extension.  He may well still be a huge bargain at $15.

By the looks of the Hoosier?s roster, DUMP has concluded that Mr. Gammons must be a Red Sox fan.  And if he wasn?t before, he sure as hell should be now.  Kevin YOUKILIS is another young Boston player that looks awfully good.  YOUKILIS isn?t particularly flashy and won?t put up huge numbers in any category, but 56 runs, 10 home runs, 44 rbi?s and 4 stolen bases with a .307 average from a corner infielder looks awfully good at $11.  Another valuable Bostonian, at least for the time being, is Trot NIXON.  DUMP feels like Mr. Nixon has been on the radar forever.  In fact, DUMP recalls The Professor giving Mr. Winick crap about this guy more than 5 years ago.  It would appear that it just took a little longer than expected.  He?s put up 6 home runs, 43 rbi, 48 runs, a .322 batting average, and all supported by a .427 on base percentage so far this season and appears healthy enough to keep it up.  DUMP says this is a very nice keeper at $7 assuming he stays in the American League.

There are three more major leaguers worthy of mention on this squad.  Ian KINSLER and Nick MARKAKIS were both Klein Nine castoffs.  DUMP suggests that The Professor might want to shift his focus from crapping all over Brad Lee to paying more attention to the kind of information that DUMP offers.  He?s going to miss these guys.  KINSLER is a solid 2nd baseman with decent pop (7 HR) and a nice average (.322)  He?s not a superstar, but at $5 he doesn?t have to be.  The Berliners were sorry to see him go last year ? the Hoosiers will be quite pleased to roster him for the next few years.  MARKAKIS looked awesome in spring training and then proceeded to demonstrate why it is so important to spend time in the minor leagues learning more about this game.  However, after struggling mightily for most of the first half of the season, young Nick appears to have figured things out.  The kid is red hot (21 out of the last 45 with 11 runs) and is beginning to establish himself as a fixture in the Baltimore outfield.  The upside is 20+ home runs, with lots of rbi?s, runs and a nice average.  There?s an awful lot to like here at $5, Y1.  Tim WAKEFIELD is surely no prospect, but at $4 could be a decent arm in the Daddies rotation.  DUMP is betting that he doesn?t make the cut, but it wouldn?t be a terrible mistake if he does.

When you have a roster of major leaguers like this, you don?t need too much support from your minor league roster and in this case that turns out to be a good thing.  The minor leaguers are hard to get too excited about.  The best of the bunch are two young pitchers, Adam MILLER and Thomas DIAMOND.  MILLER, if healthy, is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.  The problem is that he hasn?t been healthy.  He struggled throughout 2005 with elbow problems.  While he hasn?t had any problems in 2006, DUMP has a simple rule that it applies to young pitchers with elbow trouble ? JUST SAY NO.  That being said, Justin VERLANDER was struggling though elbow issues just a year ago as well and Mr. MILLER has looked good so far this year (96 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.10 Ratio, 8 wins and 91 strikeouts).  Bottom line is that MILLER could be a great addition to the Hoosiers roster some day?.but don?t count on it.  Thomas DIAMOND has a great arm, is apparently a smart guy and is being brought along at a slow and steady pace.  That?s the good news.  The bad news is that he pitches in the Texas system.  If he gets traded out of Texas or if he manages to buck a very long trend, he could be a nice player.  Once again?.don?t bet on it.

Fausto CARMONA has been anointed as the backup closer in Cleveland and that makes him moderately interesting given the likely retirement of Bob Wickman and the lack of a better alternative to replace him.  As a starter, he wasn?t and isn?t much of a prospect.  He?s only got two pitches (fastball and changeup) and he?s a groundball pitcher that doesn?t punch out batters.  But as a short reliever, he may have enough of an arsenal to get things done and, so far, seems to be succeeding (15.3 innings pitched, 3.52ERA, 1.109 ratio).  At $5, Y1, DUMP says he?s definitely worth watching.  As a post script to Brad Lee:  Take notice ? this is what the future closer in Cleveland looks like.

DUMP says it?s the rare third baseman cursed with a Ron Cey-like build that turns out to be much of a major leaguer.  If anything, Ron Cey cut a more athletic pose that Matt MOSES.  That being said, he plays a decent third base and he?s regarded as a ?toolsy? hitter.  But he had a lousy season in AA last year (.210 batting average) and is only doing moderately better this year in a second tour of AA (.256 batting average, 21 runs, 10 home runs, 1 stolen base and a miserable .303 on base percentage).  At $2, he?s worth hanging onto for at least one more year, but DUMP says this guy wouldn?t excite Brad Lee and isn?t that the true test?

Franklin GUTIERREZ is a guy that was once a top 10 minor league prospect and epitomizes a seven skill ballplayer that minor league touts fall all over themselves to praise.  The problem is that he?s never turned the skills into performance on the field.  Despite being widely acknowledged as one of the most athletic players in all of the minor leagues, this is what Baseball America had to say in its last issue:    

While Indians officials continue to rave about Gutierrez's total package, we checked in with a veteran American League scout to get his opinion on the Venezuelan native.

"My first instinct is to ask, 'What is he, really?' " the scout said. "He's not a guy who can put up enough offense to play a corner position, and he's doesn't run well enough for me to play center field every day, so the only thing he could be is a fourth outfielder.

Once again, although he?s only $5, he is unlikely to pass the Brad Lee test and therefore can?t be taken seriously.  Hell, that alone diminishes the USML trade market by about 50% (acknowledging that Mr. Robbins is always out there).  Pass.

Ryan GARKO projects out like Matt LeCroy once did, i.e., a decent backup catcher/first baseman/DH.  In other words, he hits well enough to belong on a major league roster, but not well enough to overcome the fact that he doesn?t belong on the field everyday.   DUMP has watched Matt LeCroy move from MLB team to MLB team without ever putting up truly rotisserie worthy numbers and therefore concludes that his doppelganger Ryan GARKO isn?t much of a prospect.  Pass.

Cliff PENNINGTON is a typical Oakland prospect ? average to barely above average tools accompanied with great strike zone judgment.  Cliff plays a valuable rotisserie position (SS) and has decent speed, but it?s hard to get too excited about his potential.  It doesn?t help that he has gotten off to a truly miserable start in the minor leagues (Hi A .187 batting average, 29 runs, 2 home runs, 19 rbi?s and 7 stolen bases with the kind of OBP (.282) that won?t play in Oakland.)  DUMP says this guy has a best-case upside of about $10-15 (based almost entirely on speed), no sooner than 3 years down the line.  DUMP says that given the unlikelihood of it ever developing, its not worth waiting for.  Pass.

As Mark Kerber will no doubt confirm, Brent CLEVLEN is one of those guys that has appeared on prospect lists for a long time without ever putting up the kind of numbers that support such status.  During a repeat tour through Single A last year, CLEVLEN looked good.  But when you spend a second year at Single A, you should look good.  This year he was moved to Double A and the results are not encouraging:  .213 average, 27 runs, 3 home runs, 22 rbi and 4 stolen bases with a meager .303 OBP.  DUMP says CLEV LEN is never going to play in CLEV ELAND.

What does it mean if your prospect has problems with a chronic back condition?  DUMP says it means he?s not much of a prospect.  And so it is with Jeff BIANCHI.  He put up excellent numbers last year in rookie ball until he was shut down with back trouble.  He?s having a decent season again this year, but back conditions don?t go away, and they?re destined to reappear again.  DUMP says these are damaged goods.  Pass.

Finally, anyone who watched Daisuke MATSUZAKA during the World Baseball Tournament this spring knows that this guy has pretty good stuff.  It is impossible to assess how that would play in the majors, but experience teaches that the odds are stronger that he won?t succeed than that he will.  There?s also the complicating factor that he remains under contract to his Japanese team and has indicated some serious ambivalence about coming to the United States.  DUMP says he looked good enough that he?s probably worth holding onto for the time being.  But he?s a long shot.

Bottom line with the Hoosier Daddies is that they?re locked and loaded for 2007.  The rebuilding effort is clearly off to a rousing start and worthy of a solid A.  DUMP proclaims the Hoosier Daddies as the early favorite for the 2007 Damon.  If Klein and Robbins are thinking about packing it in and returning for 2007, they should take a close look at this roster and reconsider.  Their best shot (even if it doesn?t presently look too promising) is 2006.

Next up?.the teams that ought to think about dumping.

Jeffrey Winick
DUMP

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