[USML Announce] (BN ) Merrill Fantasy Baseball Champ Says Twins' Santana Is

Thu Mar 30 11:51:14 EST 2006

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Merrill Fantasy Baseball Champ Says Twins' Santana Is Best Pick
2006-03-30 00:06 (New York)

By Danielle Sessa
     March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Fans of fantasy baseball, where
major-league statistics determine team performance, may want to
heed the advice of Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Brian Oldenski.
     The analyst won $100,000 in a high-stakes league last year,
and this season is building his squad around Minnesota Twins
pitcher Johan Santana.
     Oldenski chose Santana with his first pick this year, and
said he would have taken him over Alex Rodriguez of the New York
Yankees and Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals, last
season's Most Valuable Players and the first two selections in
his league and most others.
     ``People say pitchers get hurt often, so they avoid the
risk,'' said Oldenski, 32, sitting in a hallway of the Hilton
New York charging his laptop during a break in his draft.
``That's true, but I think Santana is a guy who can put up
amazing numbers.''
     About 7.5 million people will play this year, double from
1997, said Greg Ambrosius, president of the Fantasy Sports Trade
Association. They will spend about $133.5 million with companies
including CBS Corp.'s CBS SportsLine.com and Walt Disney Co.'s
ESPN.com to track statistics and project players' performance.
     ``We are growing as an industry,'' Ambrosius said.
     It's the busiest time of year for fantasy baseball. The
Major League Baseball season starts April 2, and most private
leagues are holding their drafts this week.

                     Fantasy Championship

     Oldenski was one of about 150 people armed with laptops and
spreadsheets at the midtown Manhattan hotel on March 18 for the
National Fantasy Baseball Championship. The contest has 330
teams this year, up from 195 during its first season two years
ago. Each of the 22 leagues has 15 teams and the person with the
top overall score at the end of the season wins $100,000.
     Each owner paid $1,250 to select a team of 30 Major League
Baseball players that will earn points based on 10 statistical
categories that include wins, home runs and stolen bases. It's
run by Ambrosius and Iola, Wisconsin-based Krause Publications,
which owns about 40 hobby magazines with topics ranging from
hunting to fantasy sports.
     Oldenski, who works at Merrill's office at the World
Financial Center in Manhattan, won the tournament last year with
a team he called ``Moneymaker.'' He wouldn't be specific about
his job at the world's biggest securities firm by market value.
     This year, he bypassed players including Los Angeles Angels
outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, the 2004 Most Valuable Player, and
Boston Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez, a nine-time All Star,
to take Santana with the fourth overall pick. The 2004 Cy Young
Award winner won 16 games last season and led the American
League with 238 strikeouts. Oldenski used his second pick on
Juan Pierre, an outfielder for the Chicago Cubs who has stolen
at least 45 bases five years in a row.

                       Too Much Power

     Relying on home-run hitters such as Guerrero and Ramirez is
a common mistake of fantasy players, Oldenski said. Players who
steal bases and hit for a high average like Pierre -- a career
.305 batter -- are more valuable, he said.
     ``They equate the home run with the touchdown,'' he said.
``They think the home run is everything, but I think in the
scoring system, the most scarce commodity is stolen bases.''
     Using that system, Oldenski developed his own formula to
predict performance and how many points each player would
generate for his fantasy team. After running the numbers on 500
major leaguers, Santana came out as most valuable and Pierre No.
2.
     Players with the first two picks in other drafts at the
Hilton didn't agree with Oldenski. Rodriguez and Pujols were the
Nos. 1 and 2 selections in all eight leagues.
     Oldenski also picked relievers Francisco Rodriguez of the
Angels and Francisco Cordero of the Texas Rangers within the
first five rounds.
     ``Closers are so scarce,'' he said. ``Rodriguez, I
projected by far to have the most saves, and closers can run off
the board quick, so I decided to lock him in.''

                     Hands-On Scouting

     While Oldenski pores over spreadsheets and concocts
formulas to select players, New Jersey mortgage broker John
Wojtowicz travels to Florida each spring to do his own scouting.
     He said he tries to use his experience as a college
baseball player at Seton Hall University to help his fantasy
team.
     ``If I am reading the same thing as everyone else is
reading, where is my advantage?'' asked Wojtowicz, 45, of
Cranford, Connecticut. ``My experience and my advantage is that
I played in college.''
     His advice this year: Avoid Florida Marlins outfielder
Jeremy Hermida, ranked by Baseball America magazine as the
fourth-best prospect, because he doesn't hit many line drives or
pull the ball with power. Wojtowicz was impressed with Florida's
Mike Jacobs, a first baseman, who he says may hit .300 with 30
home runs this year.
     Oldenski, meanwhile, said he's hoping his draft was
successful because he doesn't plan to tweak his roster much this
season.
     ``I have two kids so I try not to get too obsessed,'' said
Oldenski, who has a 19-month old boy and less-than-one-month old
girl. ``I usually do the draft and then try and go on auto-
pilot.''

--Editor: Sillup (jrb)

*T
Oldenski's First 10 Draft Picks
Player              Position       Team
Johan Santana       Pitcher        Minnesota Twins
Juan Pierre         Outfielder     Chicago Cubs
Francisco Rodriguez Pitcher        Texas Rangers
Julio Lugo          Shortstop      Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Francisco Cordero   Pitcher        Texas Rangers
Torii Hunter        Outfielder     Minnesota Twins
Randy Winn          Outfielder     San Francisco Giants
Jay Gibbons         Outfielder     Baltimore Orioles
Javy Lopez          Catcher        Baltimore Orioles
Preston Wilson      Outfielder     Houston Astros
*T

Story illustration: For more baseball, click {NI MLB <GO>}.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Danielle Sessa in New York at (1) (212) 617-2301 or
dsessa at bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Jay Beberman in New York at (1) (212) 617-7977 or
jbeberman at bloomberg.net.

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