[USML Announce] XFL according to Alex Patton
jhwinick at aol.com
jhwinick at aol.com
Wed Mar 5 18:48:09 EST 2008
This is really for Andy Klein, but I thought others might be interested.? Its Alex Patton's evaluation of the 2008 XFL race:
Research and Analysis
Alex Patton -- March 5
X's and O's in the XFL
Who's going to win the eXperts' Fantasy League this year? In no particular order... let's start with Ron.
Listing of Hitters - Shandler- (sorted by position and name).
I
Last
Pos
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
OBP
$
Sal
F
+/-
C
Iannetta
C
208
32
7
37
0
0.336
5
8
?
-3
J
Towles
C
259
17
8
59
3
0.329
8
12
?
-4
R
Howard
1B
542
95
48
133
0
0.372
25
10
*
15
D
Young
1B
389
48
14
60
1
0.342
12
11
?
1
D
Pedroia
2B
543
86
13
61
8
0.358
19
7
*
12
B
Roberts
2B
568
91
13
60
37
0.373
28
21
*
7
G
Atkins
3B
571
87
22
106
2
0.373
24
32
?
-8
T
Glaus
3B
405
67
26
73
2
0.357
15
13
?
2
J
Uribe
SS
371
42
15
54
2
0.281
7
1
?
6
R
Ankiel
OF
276
46
17
63
2
0.279
10
4
?
6
C
Granderson
OF
562
108
20
66
17
0.343
23
10
*
13
B
Hawpe
OF
574
80
26
107
3
0.375
22
11
*
11
J
Pierre
OF
572
76
1
36
49
0.323
25
21
?
4
A
Rowand
OF
517
78
17
66
10
0.324
18
14
*
4
?
Team total
?
6357
953
247
981
136
0.346
241
175
?
66
Hitters with asterisks after their salaries are frozen players. The rest Ron bought back in November in the XFL auction that is held each year in Phoenix during the Arizona Fall League symposium. The XFL is a bit of an odd duck: a 15-team mixed league, using nine of the standard 5x5 categories and substituting on-base percent for batting average. What makes it odd and thoroughly delightful is that wonkish preparation isn't just discouraged, it's effectively forbidden: owners aren't allowed to bring any lists of their own to the table. Everyone gets a copy of the latest BBHQ depth chart for each league, and that's it.
So, now that we've got that settled, how did Ron do on the hitting side?
Whose stats are these anyway? They aren't last year's, that's for sure, and they can't be Ron's projections, because there's no way he spends $20 on catchers that between them aren't going to get 500 AB.
They are Peter Kreutzer's projections in this year's edition of Patton $ On Disk, and they are the ones I'll be using in this article; because, well, you've already bought Ron's projections.
Under $ is what Peter's projected stats are worth in my 5x5 AL formulas.
And not mixed league, for the following reason.
No one has ever been able to figure out a decent mixed-league formula.
Yep. It's true. In more than 20 years, it hasn't happened. Mixed league pricing is completely different. The simple, linear calculations that I use for my AL and NL-only pricing in 4x4 and 5x5 leagues don't work for mixed leagues. The more sophisticated math that is needed is completely beyond me. I can tell at glance it's beyond others who, compared to me, are whizzes in math, by simply looking at the numbers that they generate.
Flip open your copy of the Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Guide 2008. I know you have it, and I know it's getting kind of dog-eared by now, because it's loaded with good stuff (best is John Sickels' Top 100 Prospects). Turn to page 41.
Mixed-league price 5x5 for David Wright: $32. NL 4x4 price for David Wright: $37.
They've got it totally turned around.
The person who first made me aware of this is my partner in the XFL, Peter Kreutzer.
Six years ago, when Ron cooked up the idea for the XFL, I declined the invitation to join, on the grounds that I didn't know one single thing about mixed leagues, and Peter accepted. Since I was attending the symposium, I offered to track money for Peter at the draft, if he thought that would be a help. Peter informed me that one of the rules of this league, in addition to the no-list rule, was that only one person could sit at the table. Good news, as far as I was concerned, because there was an AFL game that night.
The draft was scheduled for Saturday evening and on Saturday morning Peter happened to check his airline ticket. It said his flight back to New York was at 6 PM. On Saturday.
That didn't leave me a whole lot of time to prepare. Peter said it's okay, no one else has prepared. I said, at least give me your lists. That's when I learned lists weren't allowed.
Okay, I said, give me the names of players you like and I'll try to buy a few, so at least you have a team you like when it finishes last.
He said, I've never liked a team that finishes last.
Peter, I said, just tell me who to buy.
He said, Buy A-Rod.
Excuse me?
Buy A-Rod.
He said A-Rod was the best player, he was going to be so much better than the pretty good players, who were going to be only a little better than the $1 players (the XFL had only 12 teams in its first season), that I should just buy him.
Just buy him?
Just buy him.
Are you sure?
He was sure. Him and Vlad.
Oh. Vlad too? I was supposed to buy them both? For how much, pray tell?
Whatever it takes, said Peter.
Vlad came up first and he went quickly to $40. He went quickly to $50. He went to $51, and I said $52. The same obnoxious person (the rest of the room was now sitting there in stunned silence) said $53. I said $54.
He said $55.
I said $56. He was mine.
The room burst into derisive applause.
After a long discussion, I had a pretty good handle on Peter's thinking and I knew he was right. I saw him smiling on his airplane.
Keep taunting folks? you'll see.
Sadly, the same obnoxious fellow (Perry Van Hook) quickly took A-Rod to $56. He dared me to say $57. I chickened out.
But thereafter it was Perry who chickened out. The next highest price he paid for anyone was $26. I bought Barry for $49 and Abreu for $35 ? all three of these before the end of the second round ? whereupon someone suggested that I leave the room and come back in a couple of hours.
Instead I kicked back, crossed off names on the depth chart as players were nominated, and wrote down the prices next to the names when the bidding stopped.
Luis Castillo $23
Jeff Kent $33
Sammy Sosa $39
Mike Sweeney $26
Aaron Boone $21
Troy Glaus $32
Eventually I was back in the game ? getting Mike Lowell for $12, Preston Wilson for $14 ? and spent my last $1 for Frank Thomas.
I'm reminded, as I look at the rosters, that the draft didn't start out so hot for me. Doug Dennis opened the auction by nominating Francisco Rodriguez, I said $2, and in a matter of seconds learned that everybody else in the room realized there was no place for middle relievers, not even K-Rod, in 5x5. The first player in the first draft went to me.
I had my revenge by buying all starters from then on, skipping closers, as we had originally planned. The Patton/Kreutzer combo (Peter handled the supplemental reserve draft in March and did a nice job) stumbled a bit out of the gate, moved into first in May and was never seriously threatened.
I digress. Shall we look at another set of projections?
Listing of Hitters - Moyer- (sorted by position and name).
?
?
?
?
I
Last
Pos
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
OBP
$
Sal
F
+/-
R
Martin
C
442
76
12
69
15
0.372
20
7
*
13
G
Soto
C
362
52
12
68
0
0.338
10
7
?
3
R
Garko
1B
524
77
22
86
0
0.347
19
4
?
15
A
Pujols
1B
568
117
41
120
8
0.426
36
58
?
-22
L
Castillo
2B
521
82
3
39
18
0.366
18
9
?
9
R
Weeks
2B
467
89
15
46
24
0.345
17
10
*
7
J
Fields
3B
351
50
14
54
11
0.322
12
4
*
8
A
Gordon
3B
574
76
21
72
17
0.318
18
4
*
14
D
Jeter
SS
624
106
15
78
19
0.382
30
33
?
-3
M
Alou
OF
382
59
19
65
3
0.379
19
5
?
14
C
Crisp
OF
522
78
10
56
22
0.336
19
9
?
10
J
Damon
OF
550
102
14
68
22
0.364
24
21
?
3
M
Kemp
OF
508
92
23
86
15
0.347
27
7
*
20
H
Pence
OF
562
81
27
86
14
0.343
25
4
*
21
?
Team total
?
6957
1137
248
993
188
0.358
294
182
?
112
These are the hitters that Steve Moyer froze (*) and bought in the auction last November. The number in the $ column is what Peter Kreutzer's stat projection is worth in 5x5 AL-only leagues, according to my calculations. The $ value can also be calculated by the NL-only formula; because league differences aren't that great anymore (when the NL pitchers' hitting stats are removed), the values don't change much at all. In either set of formulas, the prices add up to standard AL 12-team or NL 13-team budgets; thus they total much higher for leagues that have both AL and NL players.
What jumps out, of course, is the price for Pujols.
Insane? I certainly don't think so. Steve clearly has a better hitting team than Ron and the reason can be spelled out in six letters.
My clunky formulas say Pujols will earn a mere $36 this year, and this is correct: in non-mixed leagues where the $1 player is such a sorry specimen. But when you're in a league where you can buy Ryan Garko for $4 and Moises Alou for $5, don't you have some extra cash to spend on Albert?
When you've got Russell Martin and Hunter Pence locked up for $11, you for sure do.
Listing of Hitters - Dennis- (sorted by position and name).
?
?
?
?
I
Last
Pos
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
OBP
$
Sal
F
+/-
V
Martinez
C
549
76
20
94
0
0.379
21
27
?
-6
J
Posada
C
434
67
19
76
2
0.386
17
21
*
-4
A
Gonzalez
1B
532
78
23
78
0
0.345
18
11
*
7
J
Morneau
1B
585
85
30
112
1
0.344
22
13
*
9
R
Cano
2B
564
81
17
82
3
0.339
20
14
*
6
D
Uggla
2B
627
110
29
90
4
0.323
20
7
*
13
E
Encarnaci
3B
512
69
18
82
8
0.329
17
10
*
7
C
Guillen
SS
475
77
15
69
12
0.375
22
19
?
3
J
Bay
OF
555
94
29
96
12
0.366
25
22
?
3
P
Burrell
OF
475
75
29
98
0
0.397
18
21
*
-3
M
Cameron
OF
389
61
15
54
15
0.339
15
3
?
12
M
Diaz
OF
311
37
8
36
4
0.349
12
3
?
9
A
Dunn
OF
546
103
40
100
7
0.373
22
25
*
-3
F
Thomas
DH
360
52
25
77
0
0.368
15
5
?
10
?
Team total
?
6914
1065
317
1144
68
0.358
264
201
?
63
This is the defending champ, BBHQ's own Doug Dennis.
Does it make sense to freeze Jorge Posada at $21 and Adam Dunn at $25?
Absolutely! Somewhat belatedly, my fellow XFLers are cottoning to the fact that prices is mixed leaguers are not linear. When you can buy Mike Cameron and Mike Diaz in the end game for $3 each, what does that tell you about the front game and the mid game?
Getting ready to write this article, I sent everyone a questionnaire. To my question, who was your best buy? Dennis responded, ?Maybe Victor Martinez. Overpriced, but you need stud catchers in this league ? at least I am convinced of that.?
Not just you, Doug. Look at what Ron spent for Towles and Iannetta. Look at what Steve spent for Soto. The reason is math that is within my grasp: when 15 teams need 30 catchers, one of them is going to get stuck with Gregg Zaun.
Listing of Hitters - Drooker- (sorted by position and name).
?
?
?
?
I
Last
Pos
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
OBP
$
Sal
F
+/-
B
Molina
C
405
38
16
63
0
0.311
12
6
?
6
J
Varitek
C
386
53
16
59
1
0.354
10
8
?
2
M
Teixeira
1B
573
96
34
116
2
0.378
26
25
*
1
I
Kinsler
2B
478
88
19
70
18
0.344
21
7
*
14
M
Cabrera
3B
568
99
30
112
4
0.403
31
25
*
6
C
Jones
3B
436
89
26
88
5
0.417
25
20
?
5
K
Greene
SS
511
69
20
78
5
0.297
13
14
?
-1
E
Byrnes
OF
545
80
19
69
28
0.319
22
14
*
8
J
Francoeur
OF
623
84
25
102
4
0.315
21
10
*
11
J
Hamilton
OF
343
60
22
54
3
0.338
14
4
*
10
A
Kearns
OF
482
74
19
72
4
0.344
14
17
?
-3
N
Markakis
OF
539
104
18
89
9
0.364
24
7
*
17
L
Milledge
OF
389
55
10
49
15
0.34
16
3
?
13
B
Upton
OF
448
73
17
64
23
0.369
22
13
*
9
?
Team total
?
6726
1062
291
1085
121
0.351
271
173
?
98
Don Drooker's hitting roster. His assessment is interesting.
On the question How would you rank your freeze list: ?1) The Dux freeze list was definitely in the top third. The team had the most offensive points last year and the core is still there...Teixeira, Upton, Cabrera, Kinsler,?Byrnes, Francouer, Markakis, etc. - also two good SP's and a cheap closer.?
Starting pitchers? Closers? Subject for another time.
On the hitting side, he was very disciplined: no Albert Pujols for him.
Everyone pays attention to catcher scarcity. We've seen that. So how the devil did he get Bengie Molina for $6 and Jason Varitek for $8?
In a year in which he calculated the inflation to be ?20-25% for hitting, slightly less for pitching,? how did he get Khalil Greene for $14?
I agree with Peter's OPS projection for Khalil Greene, but man, those power numbers are tame.
Even if Chipper does get only 436 AB, he was a hell of a buy, hell of a buy. In mixed leagues ? especially ones with 17-round reserve drafts and unlimited ups and downs all season ? you can always plug someone else in.
Lots of people think durability counts even more in mixed leagues. They have it all wrong.
Here's a good example.
Listing of Hitters - Ambrosius- (sorted by position and name).
?
?
?
?
I
Last
Pos
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
OBP
$
Sal
F
+/-
J
Estrada
C
291
27
6
39
0
0.306
7
4
?
3
K
Suzuki
C
264
37
6
41
0
0.321
5
4
*
1
C
Delgado
1B
547
83
33
109
1
0.352
21
15
?
6
J
Kent
2B
475
78
21
82
3
0.369
19
11
?
8
A
Iwamura
3B
522
82
23
70
9
0.376
23
4
*
19
R
Zimmerman
3B
553
79
18
86
6
0.341
19
17
*
2
J
Reyes
SS
667
112
13
65
67
0.346
38
25
*
13
J
Rollins
SS
627
115
20
70
36
0.336
31
28
*
3
R
Baldelli
OF
242
36
10
33
7
0.316
9
2
?
7
B
Bonds
OF
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
?
-1
K
Griffey
OF
325
51
21
58
1
0.361
13
9
?
4
T
Hunter
OF
505
80
24
86
18
0.333
23
26
?
-3
C
Maybin
OF
299
59
6
45
25
0.321
12
2
?
10
G
Sheffield
DH
394
75
21
72
12
0.37
20
16
?
4
?
Team total
?
5711
914
222
856
185
0.345
240
164
?
76
It looks like Greg Ambrosius is going to crap out on Barry.
But if he doesn't, Greg will go up five or six places in OBP alone.
If Barry can't find a job, here are a few of the outfielders who will available in the supplemental draft: Michael Bourn, Emil Brown, David DeJesus, Chris Denorfia, Jim Edmunds, Luis Gonzalez, Franklin Gutierrez, Geoff Jenkins, Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones?
Baldelli, Griffey, Sheffield, ? highly productive when they're playing, easily replaced when they're not. What looks like a high-risk strategy by Greg is simply playing the game ? this particular mixed-league game, with its 17-player taxi squad ? the way it oughta be played.
How should it not be played? The consensus of those who responded to my questionnaire was that the following team made the single worst buy in the draft:
Listing of Hitters - Feldman- (sorted by position and name).
?
?
?
?
I
Last
Pos
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
OBP
$
Sal
F
+/-
M
Barrett
C
266
30
10
36
0
0.322
7
6
?
1
B
McCann
C
419
49
18
77
1
0.35
16
21
?
-5
C
Kotchman
1B
467
62
17
69
2
0.34
14
6
*
8
A
LaRoche2
3B
354
62
16
59
5
0.351
13
4
*
9
T
Wigginton
3B
404
52
19
60
2
0.328
13
6
*
7
O
Cabrera
SS
600
81
8
72
21
0.332
20
13
?
7
Y
Escobar
SS
425
57
5
43
7
0.341
10
12
?
-2
R
Church
OF
434
56
16
68
6
0.346
14
6
*
8
C
Crawford
OF
615
95
15
80
52
0.341
37
30
*
7
C
Lee
OF
633
95
34
118
14
0.346
29
46
?
-17
F
Pie
OF
498
73
13
55
18
0.305
15
4
*
11
J
Willingham
OF
469
73
25
82
6
0.365
19
7
*
12
B
Butler
DH
473
69
18
87
1
0.36
17
4
*
13
J
Votto
1B
365
50
12
56
13
0.362
15
4
*
11
?
Team total
?
6422
904
226
962
148
0.342
239
169
?
70
What possessed Brian Feldman to spend $46 on Carlos Lee?
Answer: his freeze list.
The better question is when did he pay $46 for Carlos Lee, and the answer to that is, very late in the draft.
He didn't volunteer to pay this amount in a fit of generosity. Somebody made him, so what we know is ? even after $58 was paid for Albert Pujols at the beginning of the auction ? there was ton of money left at the end.
I'm sure Brian would tell us he was prepared to go higher; when he filled his final roster spot, he had $7 left over.
Here's the hitting roster of the team that did in fact end up with Gregg Zaun:
Listing of Hitters - Walton- (sorted by position and name).
?
?
?
?
I
Last
Pos
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
OBP
$
Sal
F
+/-
C
Ruiz
C
366
39
7
53
5
0.326
8
6
?
2
G
Zaun
C
358
49
11
52
1
0.35
8
1
?
7
D
Lee
1B
513
92
29
84
11
0.4
29
29
?
0
F
Sanchez
2B
535
71
14
66
2
0.322
14
11
?
3
K
Kouzmanof
3B
557
63
22
88
1
0.318
15
6
*
9
D
Wright
3B
586
103
28
108
24
0.395
35
13
*
22
F
Lopez
SS
501
74
12
52
23
0.337
18
6
?
12
E
Renteria
SS
556
93
11
64
12
0.351
19
15
?
4
M
Ordonez
OF
521
83
21
101
2
0.379
24
32
*
-8
W
Taveras
OF
571
88
2
32
38
0.33
23
10
*
13
M
Teahen
OF
550
83
13
73
12
0.342
18
11
*
7
V
Wells
OF
631
88
26
98
12
0.329
22
21
?
1
C
Young
OF
469
83
25
66
26
0.315
22
7
*
15
J
Giambi
DH
361
64
27
77
1
0.376
15
3
?
12
?
Team total
?
7075
1073
248
1014
170
0.348
270
171
?
99
Brian Walton's assessment of his freezes:
?No one likes to call their kids ugly, but my freeze list is clearly in the bottom half and probably bottom third. That is consistent with where I finished last season ? at the end of the middle third.
?Because of the lack of a strong minor league pipeline, I kept solid veterans with only moderate upside ? guys like Magglio Ordonez ($32), Mark Teahen ($11) and Jason Isringhausen ($11). Not embarrassing players at the price, but I'd rather have been able to protect more $7 Adam Wainwrights and Justin Verlanders.?
Brian's even one of the few people who figured out inflation (remember that this auction takes place in November, when people are in Phoenix to have a good time, see their pals, watch a whole bunch of prospects play while sitting in prime seats in empty stadiums, and not be wonks): ?? for me coming into the draft, it was about 34%.?
Did everyone catch that?
Brian looked carefully enough at everyone else's freezes to conclude that he had one of the worst freeze lists in the league. And he still figured the inflation factor for him was 34%.
How big is 34%? If you think Derrek Lee is worth $29 in a start-up draft, with your freezes, you can go all the way to $39 before you reach the breaking point.
Brian rostered Derrek Lee at the par price (in a conservative set of projections, if you ask me) in a non-freeze NL-only draft.
Derek Lee may have been the steal of the draft. Or was it Vernon Wells?
Or was it ? ? Was it ? ? Gregg Zaun? How many catchers can you name who have a .344 career on-base percent?
Say what you will, Brian took an unprepossessing bunch of freezes and put together a heck of an offense, even in a less-than-rosy set of projections.
He also made some nice pitching buys (Carlos Zambrano $21, Ben Sheets $15, Ubaldo Jimenez $6) to back up his $7 Adam Wainwright and $7 Justin Verlander. And had a dollar left over.
The team with far and away the fewest freezes in the auction last fall:
Listing of Hitters - Patton/Kreutzer- (sorted by position and name).
?
?
?
?
I
Last
Pos
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
OBP
$
Sal
F
+/-
M
Olivo
C
287
31
10
38
3
0.261
5
3
?
2
A
Pierzynsk
C
500
62
17
59
1
0.305
12
8
?
4
L
Overbay
1B
538
74
18
73
3
0.352
16
13
?
3
R
Sexson
1B
551
81
33
101
1
0.332
17
10
?
7
K
Youkilis
1B
484
81
12
68
4
0.38
15
15
?
0
J
Lopez
2B
509
58
8
66
4
0.278
9
2
?
7
M
Mora
3B
523
77
18
71
8
0.341
17
3
?
14
J
Hardy
SS
491
67
18
65
1
0.316
12
6
*
6
H
Ramirez
SS
547
98
16
60
40
0.353
31
7
*
24
B
Abreu
OF
558
104
18
99
28
0.395
29
34
?
-5
B
Giles
OF
408
63
11
54
7
0.376
13
3
?
10
V
Guerrero
OF
591
91
32
121
10
0.389
33
44
?
-11
C
Patterson
OF
479
65
13
46
34
0.289
19
6
?
13
R
Winn
OF
521
67
13
54
12
0.34
17
8
?
9
?
Team total
?
6987
1019
237
975
156
0.341
245
162
?
83
We had a grand total of two pitching freezes (Danny Haren $10, Jose Valverde $16).
I probably should have mentioned at the beginning that the way we manage our contracts is simplicity itself.
?Retained players must have their salary level increased by $5 each year, with the exception of players originally drafted as farm players whose salary would increase by $3 each year.?
Peter bought J.J. Hardy last year for $1, so he's $6 this year and will be $11 next year.
Hanley Ramirez was originally drafted as a farm player on Ron Shandler's reserve roster, then was traded to us in 2005, when Ron was going for the roses and we were out of it (otherwise known as a dump trade). In his rookie season he became a $1 player, last year his salary went to $4, this year he costs $7, next year he'll cost $10.
It's a gift that we repaid Ron the following year by sending him Ryan Howard, who at that point cost us a mere $4, in a dump trade going the other way. Ron had him last year for $7, has him this year for $10, and will have him next year for $13.
Neither dump trade worked. In 2005 Ron finished third. In 2006 we finished third.
What's nice about this rule is that players like A-Rod and Albert are going to be available every year. What's not nice is that Ron, Peter and I will be in nursing homes before anyone else gets to bid on Ryan Howard or Hanley Ramirez.
In any event, we basically had a one-man reserve list going into this year's auction. It's more accurate to say Peter did, since I didn't get to Phoenix this year.
Do I like the hitters he bought?
Are you kidding? Do you?
If Richie Sexson hits 33 homers this year and knocks in 100 runs, I'll fall over in a faint. I don't know what Peter's fixation is with Cory Patterson, but I don't share it.
Peter was kind enough to answer the questionnaire that I sent to everyone. A selection of his answers:
2) Who had the best freeze list?
?Moyer.? ?
4) What did you see as the single best freeze in the league?
?Maybe Hanley. Ryan Braun at $4 is sweet.?
5) What did you calculate the inflation factor to be? (The exact number, if you're one of those types, otherwise just ballpark.)
?Impossible to say. The prices are much too fluid.?
6) What do you see as your best buy in the auction?
?Roy Halladay for $25. Not a great deal, but you have to have a frontline pitcher and he's a good one.?
7) Your worst?
?Too many to count really?
?My goal was to augment the freezes with quality players. I picked up Vladdy and Abreu and Halladay at good prices, and got what seemed to be a healthy Kelvim Escobar at a decent price. Alas, although I had the money to burn on a third star I failed to pull the trigger on Derek Jeter and Carlos Beltran, who went for good prices, because they weren't the perfect profile for me (too much speed)? the right guy (Carlos Lee) went for more money then I had, and then prices collapsed?
?The beauty of this league is that if Sexson sucks, Escobar stays hurt, Wandy Rodriguez, Scott Olsen, and Jose Lopez don't bloom, and some other hell falls, selling out is decisive and fun.?
8) Most overpriced player in the draft? (Optional, if you're afraid of being punched next year in Phoenix.)
?We could have kept Garrett Atkins at $24 or so, and he ended up going for $31. I'm not saying that's a bad price, but it's a higher price than I thought he'd have.?
10) Who's going to win the league?
?I don't have a clue. There are so many good keepers out there now that things will turn on who gets hurt and who gets hot. I'd like Moyer's team best if there weren't these surgery issues dogging Pujols. Plus the league's trading and sell-out rules mean that things get awfully fluid in June and July, as the contenders separate from those building for next year. That said, Trace Wood has an awesome team.?
Trace Wood? We haven't even looked at him.
Listing of Hitters - Wood- (sorted by position and name).
?
?
?
?
I
Last
Pos
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
OBP
$
Sal
F
+/-
J
Mauer
C
469
69
10
66
9
0.395
19
10
*
9
D
Navarro
C
364
42
8
38
2
0.309
5
3
?
2
J
Loney
1B
457
63
13
70
2
0.342
14
7
*
7
C
Pena
1B
465
77
33
89
2
0.364
18
15
*
3
A
Casilla
2B
338
43
1
20
25
0.31
11
4
*
7
A
Ramirez
3B
546
83
33
109
1
0.354
25
29
?
-4
R
Theriot
SS
448
66
3
46
26
0.35
18
6
*
12
T
Tulowitzk
SS
563
95
20
84
8
0.339
20
12
*
8
J
Dye
OF
541
84
35
98
7
0.342
24
11
?
13
J
Guillen
OF
464
65
19
72
2
0.316
14
6
*
8
C
Hart
OF
529
84
23
80
20
0.335
24
11
*
13
A
Jones
OF
596
99
41
121
5
0.333
17
27
?
-10
G
Sizemore
OF
637
120
25
78
26
0.368
29
10
*
19
J
Upton
OF
385
64
10
63
12
0.339
14
4
*
10
?
Team total
?
6802
1054
274
1034
147
0.334
252
155
?
97
Not bad. It does get blurry, though. I mean, everybody's got a lot of hitting. The question is who has the most?
The projected hitting stats, ranked by total points (pts showing the points in each category, ties rounded off):
XFL
HR
pts
RBI
Pts
SB
Pts
OBP
pts
Runs
Pts
Hpts
Moyer
248
8
993
8
188
15
0.358
14
1137
15
60
Dennis
317
15
1144
15
68
2
0.358
14
1065
13
59
Drooker
291
14
1085
14
121
6
0.351
11
1062
12
57
Walton
248
8
1014
10
170
13
0.348
9
1073
14
54
Van Hook
256
10
1030
11
141
9
0.353
12
1041
10
52
Wood
274
12
1034
12
147
10
0.345
5
1054
11
50
Winick
279
13
1044
13
67
1
0.35
10
1014
8
45
Wilton
262
11
993
8
140
8
0.342
3
959
5
35
P/K
237
6
975
6
156
12
0.341
1
1019
9
34
Shandler
247
7
981
7
136
7
0.346
7
953
4
32
Menna
219
1
941
3
113
5
0.355
13
1010
7
29
Feldman
226
4
962
5
148
11
0.342
3
904
1
24
Ambrosius
222
2
856
1
185
14
0.345
5
914
2
24
Michaels
224
3
945
4
105
3
0.346
7
993
6
23
Zola
227
5
934
2
111
4
0.341
1
936
3
15
?
3777
?
14931
?
1996
?
0.348
?
15134
?
?
In a league of awesome offenses, in Peter's projections, Moyer's is the most awesome.
To fulfill Peter's overall prediction, Wood better have an awesome pitching staff.
XFL
W
pts
Svs
pts
ERA
pts
WHIP
pts
SO
pts
Ppts
Drooker
76
12
91
14
3.67
14
1.25
11
1303
9
60
Winick
86
15
35
3
3.72
11
1.23
14
1441
15
58
Dennis
80
14
39
5
3.97
6
1.22
15
1342
12
52
Moyer
77
13
36
4
3.72
12
1.26
8
1399
14
51
Wilton
71
7
76
12
3.71
13
1.26
10
1272
6
48
Van Hook
75
10
51
7
3.90
9
1.23
13
1293
8
47
Zola
72
8
66
9
3.58
15
1.24
12
1185
1
45
Wood
65
2
80
13
3.90
10
1.26
9
1309
10
44
P/K
75
10
45
6
3.96
7
1.29
6
1352
13
42
Walton
75
10
58
8
3.92
8
1.31
4
1236
3
33
Feldman
69
4
93
15
4.02
3
1.32
2
1281
7
31
Menna
69
4
68
10
3.98
4
1.36
1
1242
5
24
Shandler
70
6
24
2
3.98
5
1.26
7
1236
3
23
Ambrosius
65
2
72
11
4.06
2
1.31
5
1195
2
22
Michaels
65
2
12
1
4.07
1
1.32
3
1334
11
18
?
1090
?
846
?
3.88
?
1.27
?
19420
?
?
He doesn't. Drooker has the best pitching.
Moyer's strong. But hey, Drooker was strong in hitting. Who's going to win this thing?
We haven't shown ties, remember, so just because you're good at adding things in your head, don't think you've already figured it out.
Drum roll.. Final standings, according to Peter Kreutzer's projections, in the XFL this year...
XFL 2008
PTS
Don Drooker
117
Steve Moyer
113
Doug Dennis
112
Jeff Winick
103
Perry Van Hook
99
Trace Wood
94.5
Brian Walton
88
Rick Wilton
84
Patton/Kreutzer
76.5
Todd Zola
60.5
Brian Feldman
56
Ron Shandler
56
John Menna
53.5
Greg Ambrosius
46.5
Lawr Michaels
41.5
Yep, you figured it out. Steve Moyer has a nice team, Doug Dennis strives mightily to defend his crown, two-time champion Jeff Winick sneaks into the money, but when all is said and done, Don Drooker wins easily.
Now, there are some caveats, I admit. These are the hypothetical final standings: the standings if there were no changes in our rosters after the auction that was held way back in November. And there will be plenty of changes. Unlimited ups and downs between our 23-man active rosters and 17-player reserve lists which, except for prospects carried over in our farm systems, haven't even been determined yet. At the beginning of every month there will be a snake draft, in which teams can dump their three least appealing players ? send them straight to the Mexican League ? and pick up three more. There will be trades. There, inevitably, as Peter has pointed out, will be dump trades: a so-far unrancorous tradition in a league that was supposed to be an antidote to the nasty leagues that all of us play in. Unrancorous, in large part, if not in whole, because we play for hypothetical money.
These are the little caveats. The big one is that all of the above are projected stats.
Next year, it's pretty obvious what my topic should be. Maybe I'll throw Ron's projections into the software and see what kind of finish he projected.
Will the projected finishes be very different? That would be interesting.
Hopefully, if the projections that Peter and I are selling this year end up looking bad, I'll at least be able to brag about how we finished.
Full details on how to buy the 2008 edition of Patton $ On Disk are at Peter's web site: www.askrotoman.com. To join a truly unique forum that talks about baseball 24/7 ? and is free ? you'll want to visit www.pattonandco.com. For the diehards who insist there really is a Stage 4, or at least a formula for generating reasonable mixed-league prices, there's www.alexpatton.com, which is also free.
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