[USML Announce] 2008 Projections - The Preliminary Version

Sun Mar 16 17:58:29 EDT 2008

Let me put it to you this way King Jeff.

We live in a new world.  

A world in which Blocker chases players who have not yet been drafted.  

A world in which Klein drafts prospects.  

A world in which no player on the Red Hots is untouchable.

The number players on my roster in the last year of their contracts is high.
I'm going to need to rebuild in 2009 either way.  

So I might as well go for it all in 2008.

-- Rich

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From: announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] On Behalf
Of jhwinick at aol.com
Sent: Sunday, March 16, 2008 5:15 PM
To: announce at usml.net
Subject: [USML Announce] 2008 Projections - The Preliminary Version

The official Shandler-Winick post draft assessment:

First, an observation.  This should be the most wide open race in a long
while.  I don't see anyone with a overwhelming advantage and noone who's out
of it.  

Second, these are preliminary observations.  The final projections will come
shortly after the start of the season.

11.  GOP - Lots of speed, great average, but not nearly enough runs, rbis or
home runs.  Pitching is squarely in the middle of the pack, but unless he
gets lucky with Percival and Betancourt, he's also very light on saves.
Probably doesn't have the goods to trade his way out of it.

10.  Klein Nine - The problem wasn't the draft, which actually wasn't half
bad.  The problem was coming into the draft with almost no undervalue.  The
offense is not good:  a ridiculous amount of power, but only a middling
amount of rbi's; no speed, a corresponding lack of runs and an average that
is a complete disaster.  Lots of wins, lots of strikeouts but at what cost?
Lousy ERA, Lousy Ratio and only one closer means middle of the pack, at
best, in saves.  Not enough in the bank to turn this around this year, but
plenty of tools to come back strong in 2009.

9.  Lake Michigan Calamari - Other than an absence of speed and lots of
saves, middle of the pack in nearly every category.   If Bonderman and
Escobar stay healthy, the pitching might be fairly good, but with only 5
drafted starters, they had better be healthy.  Might catch a break with
Adenhart, who stands a shot at filling in for Lackey.  The offense is O L D.
9 players older than 30, so the future is now.  

8.  Nukes - Light on power, lousy average, but middle of the pack or better
everywhere else.  The season probably turns on where Roberts lands.  If he
stays in the AL, this is a team that could challenge.  If not, this team is
going to be one to watch over the next few years.  

7.  Block's Bombers -  The problem is the pitching.  Its Bedard and then
hold your breath.  Even after plugging in Joba, there are alot of holes.
Hoey, Niemann, Morrow and Perkins are all just as likely to be relievers as
starters.  That leaves the Bombers starved for wins.  Surprisingly, despite
the heavy balance of relievers, the Bombers also have lousy ERA and Ratio.
That's what Todd Jones, Joe Borowski and a bunch of rookies will do.  Other
than being light on speed, the offense looks good.  A nice core of prospects
and keepers means this team can contend.

6.  Brats - No wins and no runs.  But lots of everything else.  The team is
fairly young with lots of upside.  Thames and Shannon Stewart at two of the
outfield slots is a bit disconcerting, but there's a lot to like here.  Not
sure there's enough to win, but with a little bit of luck, this team could
contend.

5.  Angry Young Men - The first of the teams that should be serious
contenders for the title.  The AYM had the best retention roster until they
spent $35 on extended salaries.  That should mean this team contends for the
next few years, but it does push it back in the pack as far as contending
this year.  The offense is excellent, but the pitching is a bit scary.
Verlander and Halliday is a great start, but it then gets scary.  Colon,
Mussina, Floyd and Silva means that there are going to be some frightening
boxscores for this team.  And it shows in the projections.  The best
projected offense and the worst projected pitching.  The pieces are here to
win, but it will take a willingness to sacrifice the future a bit.  

4.  Berliners - Its hard to overcome an $18 handicap, so sacrifices were
necessary.  Drafted lots of players with potential, but not much in the way
of solid track records.  It will take lots of good fortune to turn that
potential into performance.  It starts with the pitching, for sure.
Lackey's recovery is a must.  If he doesn't get healthy quickly, this team
will be looking at 2009 quickly.  But there are lots of young pitchers with
a shot to put up decent seasons.  The offense is also young with the
potential to surprise.  No speed, but otherwise a well balanced team.  Best
guess is that this team shoots for 2009, but it has a shot to make things
interesting this year.

3.  Riptorns -Came into the draft as the team to beat, but didn't get enough
offense at the draft.  Great pitching.  Okay, really, really great pitching.
This team ought to run away with wins, K's, ERA and ratio.  No saves, but my
guess is that Brad Lee will find a way to trade out of that problem.  Too
many holes in the offense means he'll have to trade out of that as well.
More than enough pieces to make that happen and heaven knows Brad Lee will
give it the old college try.  

2.  Red Hots - Top notch offense and decent pitching.   Consider this:
Hinske, German and Murphy occupy three of the offensive slots and this is
still one of the best two offenses in the league.   King Felix heads a
potentially strong staff, but there are as many questions as answers.  Is
Lester healthy again and will he find the plate often enough?  Is Garza for
real or did Minnesota let him go for good reason?  Is Paul Byrd still using
the PED's and, if not, will his numbers suffer?  Is Fernando Rodney's health
going to be a problem?  Well....you see what I mean.  The pitching will be
the challenge here.  Plenty of top prospects and keepers to use as bait to
fill any holes.  The question, as always, is whether Rich can part with any
of his prized players to make a run for the roses.  History suggests he
can't and he won't.  If Rich bucks his instincts, this team can, and maybe,
should win. 

1.  Hoosier Daddies - Maybe, just maybe, Rick gets the last "laffey".  The
eptiome of a well balanced team.  Rick came to the table with a nice keeper
list and then did exactly what he needed to do to fill in the gaps.  A
quietly terrific draft, Rick looks strong everywhere except power and
strikeouts. Rick projects to the third best offense and the second best
pitching.  Its hard to take issue with this team, the frontrunner for the
2009 Damon.  More than enough beans to fill in the gaps and deal with
unexpected trouble.  

Let the games begin!!!!

The King

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