[USML Announce] Ron and Me

[Jeffrey Winick]

Ron Shandler's Fanalytics
August 20, 2010



O' No!
It all started a little over a year ago. 
I was in rebuilding mode in the eXperts Fantasy League (XFL) and pulled off the following deal with Lawr Michaels: 
I sent him Lance Berkman. He sent me Chase Headley, Chris Tillman and Travis Hafner.
Hafner was a throwaway, but the other two were both potential keepers for 2010. Headley was a top-rated prospect who had scuttled about getting his feet wet in the majors for a season and a half. Tillman was amidst a minor league season in which he'd post a 2.75 ERA with a 3.8 Cmd ratio and an MLE BPV of 117. 
Tillman struggled upon his promotion to Baltimore the following month, going 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA and meager 1.6 Cmd ratio. But he was only 21. Still a keeper. 
The annual XFL auction takes place at First Pitch Arizona each November. I went into last year's draft with what I thought was a solid protection list, led by Jason Heyward, Austin Jackson and Brett Anderson (And Headley. And Tillman.). All I needed to do was have a decent draft. 
A $34 Carlos Beltran is about all you need to know about how 2010 has gone. So we've gone back to rebuilding, year #2. 
On June 7, I made the following deal with Todd Zola: 
I sent him Joakim Soria. He sent me Brian Matusz.
Now, Matusz was not having the best of years. He scraped through April with a 4.40 ERA, then saw his once stellar BPV plummet to 27 in May. But this was a highly-touted prospect who was coming off a minor league season where he went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 3.8 Cmd ratio. His 4.63 ERA in 2009's MLB debut was backed by a solid 2.7 Cmd and 71 BPV. I momentarily considered the implications of rostering two Orioles pitching prospects... but only momentarily. 
As I continued to sink in the standings (and wasn't Matusz's July a hoot!), I put out another call to the top contenders in the league to try to unload some of my valuable, but unprotectable players. 
Battling for first place, Jeff Winick was interested in my Paul Konerko. He wrote me: "It's probably easier for me to trade a March pick rather than someone presently contributing, but I'll do anything that makes my team better." 
If I was smart, I would have heeded that comment, if for no other reason than to protect me from myself. But Jeff had one player who was simply too intriguing to resist. 
Jake Arrieta. 
Before I would commit this act of insanity, I sent off an email to our minor league expert, Rob Gordon. I wrote: "I already own Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz in a keeper league. I have an opportunity to add Jake Arrieta at a low cost. Would this be the epitome of masochism or does this trio have a real chance of becoming as productive as their advanced hype would indicate? Should I roll the dice with the two O's I already have and look for something else other than a third Baltimore starter?" 
You see, I was at least a little bit smart. Just a little. 
But I was also a little impatient. While I waited for Rob to respond, I emailed Jeff to see if Arrieta was even available. I framed the email as being "just this side of madness." 
On August 10, Rob finally responded: 
"My take is that this would be a tough call. All three have very good long-term potential, but also plenty of work to do. Adding Arrieta seems like a bit of a risk. That gives you three fairly volatile young pitchers and Arrieta probably has the most work to do of the three. Matusz is probably the furthest along the development curve, but is far from a finished product. Tillman and Arrieta need to throw more strikes, trust their stuff, and hit their spots. No small feat vs the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Jays. The upshot of having all three of them - despite the tremendous potential - is a ton of risk." 
Ah, but Rob was just sugar-coating things. His true feelings came out in his next statement: 
"Are there other players you can look at - possibly a position player?" 
For me, Konerko was a useless player on a roster looking towards 2011. Getting Arrieta for him would at least be something. I asked Rob to dig deep and find anything good to say. He fed me the company line... 
"It seems to me the logical counter-argument is you'll have three tremendously talented young arms and that historically one or two of them will develop into a legit top-of-the-rotation guy. Having cheap arms with upside allows you to spend freely on expensive hitting. Since pitching is volatile anyway, why buy an expensive starter..." 
He was placating me. I needed that. 
The real problem was that this conversation occurred on August 10. 
On August 9, Jeff had already tossed me into the abyss: 
I sent him Paul Konerko. He sent me Jake Arrieta.
So here I am with a trio of potentially high upside starting pitchers on a terrible ballclub. But there is always good news if you look hard enough for it. From the Minor League Baseball Analyst: 
                                 '09 MLE Performance
           Rating  Potential    Ctl  Dom  Cmd  BPV  *Rank
           ======  ==========   ===  ===  ===  ===  =====
rrieta,J     8B    #3 starter   3.5  7.4  2.1   52    26
atusz,B      9B    #1 starter   2.3  7.6  3.3  106     2
illman,C     9C    #2 starter   2.3  8.5  3.7  117     9
* Rank among all pitching prospects
In retrospect, the Arrieta acquisition now seems a bit more ill-advised. 
And, the rest of the story... 
             Major League Record                    Keeper
            W   L   IP   ERA   Ctl  Dom  Cmd  BPV  Price
           ==  ==  ===  ====   ===  ===  ===  ===  ======
rrieta,J    4   4   72  5.23   5.0  4.2  0.8  -40    $4
atusz,B     9  14  174  5.11   3.4  7.1  2.1   49    $7
illman,C    3   9   90  6.10   3.7  5.1  1.4    8    $7
Heck, if a Major League ballclub is content to bank their future on the potential of this trio, why shouldn't I feel likewise? Yes, the easy answer is "because it's the Orioles." But there is clearly some upside here. 
And I can't forget these illustrious pitching lines: 
             W   L   IP   ERA   
           ==  ==  ===  ====   
itcher A    3   7   81  5.09
itcher B    2   3   86  6.49
itcher C    6  14  155  5.61
itcher D    2   7   64  5.48
Who owned these horrible stats? These were the rookie seasons of (in order) Chris Carpenter, Johan Santana, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz. 
There is hope yet. 
Maybe. 



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