[USML Announce] Welcome to Winick World

[Brad Jansen]

Let's break down Winick's analysis into understandable parts.

Bear in mind, Winick sees his own team finishing 4th, notwithstanding
that: (i) he has no closer; (ii) his pitching points depend on "solid
youngsters" such as Harrison, Porcello, and Francis; and (iii) there
are "some holes in this offense" (i.e., not one hitter likely to smack
20 home runs this season).  Of course, Jeffrey expects to repair this
damage by trading away his cheap keepers--more on that later.

If Jeffrey is this delusional about his own team, query what he says
about yours.  But let's have a looksie at his conclusions:
   Hoosier Dads, Riptorns, Bombers, Nukes: These teams have no chance
and should dump immediately--presumably, to Jeffrey.
   Brats: This team doesn't have talent to win it, but shouldn't dump
either. Just sit still and behave yourself.
   AYM, Red Hots and LMC: These teams could win this year but don't
have the stones to trade keepers.
    K-9:  "Top offensive team...[with] more than enough pitching
points to put it over the top."  Uh-huh. Right....
    Berliners: "This team has the gumption to pull off the key deals
necessary to make a run at it...."

    So, for the benefit of us who should dump, let's take a look at
the purported keepers on the teams Jeffrey says are racing to the top:
    K-9: Unless you think Francoeur and Ortiz fit your needs for next
year, that active roster has nothing--nada--worth dumping for.
Reserve list offers little. Lars Anderson is overhyped and has no
position on the big club. Segura is a ways off and light hitter.
Sanchez yet another Yankee catcher....only one worth note is Pomeranz.
Yippee.
           As K-9's mediocre pitching brings points total down to
earth, K-9 can only pray that Jeffrey is correct about LMC, MRH and
AYM.  But let's look at these teams anyway....

   LMC: Lowrie nice hitter but where will he play when Iglesias makes
team--that glove work is problematic--he's trade bait for a starting
pitcher, so be careful with that one. Carter's contract already
running and As still don't like that big swing of his. Boils down to
the Moustakas and Lamb....and Great Britton, too.  Nathan worth a
flier as well. So, will LMC prove Winick right and let K-9 slither
into 2011 championship seat?

   MRH: Davis (if legs still strong), Gordon, Santana, Price, Hosmer,
and I'm sure there's more deep sleepers in there.  But Jeffrey says
MRH cannot let go of these guys....but some nice talent there. Rich
stays awake nights wondering if he can catch K-9 without trading any
of these guys....can he?

   AYM: Again, Jeffrey says AYM stand down this year, but if not:
Ackley, Conger, Cain, Hellickson....and throw in Hoes and a Fister and
you know you'll have a good time with these keepers.  But as Jeffrey
says: faggadaboutit.

    Berliners: Last and least.  Let Jeffrey prattle on about his great
keepers, but please, take a close and reasonable look: Austin
Jackson's whopping strikeout rate already has cost him a leadoff
spot--to Will Rhymes!!  And Justin Smoak looks like the AL West's
version of James Loney. No thanks. The farm system has nice talent but
it's too expensive and far off: Trout-15; Machado-10; Myers-10;
Montgomery-10.  That leaves you with two $5 twirlers: White and Moore.
Take your chances? No thanks.

Bottom line: Berliners will finish lower than Riptorns and K-9 wins
only if the Red Hots and/or LMC don't deal.  That's my prediction.
See you in October!

On Sun, Apr 17, 2011 at 11:29 AM, Jeffrey Winick <jhwinick at aol.com> wrote:
> It’s that time again.  Pippin no longer has much to say, but the tradition
> begun long ago with Pippin’s Projections and the rebuttal “Pippin’s Nothing
> But a Dog” continues.
>
> With all the bitching and moaning from Brad Jansen, one can only draw the
> inescapable conclusion that that certain someone is in desperate need of
> that which his initials are also known to stand for.  But I was not to be
> dissuaded and I will offer my projections nonetheless:
>
> 10 – Hoosier Daddies – Surprise, surprise.  You had to be expecting to see
> the Block’s Bombers here, but as we’ll discuss further down the page, that
> team, while bad, is still better than this one.  There are simply too many
> non-productive players on this roster.  Castro, Getz, Ryan, Saunders and
> Rodriguez are all guys that won’t put up much, if any, offensive value.  And
> many of the following are going to be filling key pitching slots this year
> and that does not bode well:  Litsch, Buehrle, Carmona, Vargas and O’Day.
>  Without much in the way of trade bait to make a run this year, the smart
> money is on this smart player pulling back and playing for the future.
>
> 9 – Riptorns – It should be time for this once uber franchise to return to
> relevance, but a quick perusal of his roster makes it clear that you’re
> going to have to be patient if you’re waiting for another Riptorn title.
>  Bottom line – this team is not good.  Start with the catchers.  Cervelli
> and Shoppach?  Zero and Zero.  Rhymes, Nix, Hughes are three more dead
> slots.  But the real problem is that the supposedly productive slots are
> occupied by overpriced bums.  Brad Lee took all that hard earned draft money
> and wasted it.  $18 on Chone Figgins, $29 on Adam Dunn, $12 on Magglio
> Ordonez, $11 on Peter Bourjos, $15 on Tsuyoshi Nishioka and $8 on Hideki
> Matsui (when he could have had David Ortiz for $2).  What do these guys have
> in common?  They’re either over the hill, perennially injured, batting
> average drains or some combination of the three.  The pitching is good, but
> not nearly as good as Brad Lee thought and not nearly good enough to
> overcome the consequences of too many holes in the offense.  Even the great
> Brad Lee won’t be able to fill them.  And he’s too smart to fight the
> inevitable.  The seeds for a successful future are already in place.  Count
> on Brad Lee to start farming (or is that fishing) very, very soon.
>
> 8 – Block’s Bombers – This team is in rebuilding mode as evidenced by the
> brilliant moves at the end of last season.  Why will this team finish ahead
> of the Riptorns?  Just look at the catchers.  Mr. B was wise enough to trade
> for Wieters and to draft the resurgent Alex Avila.  Luke Scott, Brett
> Gardner, Brent Morel, Ricky Romero, Brian Duensing, Derek Holland and Jake
> McGee all provide hope for the future.  Sure, Liriano, Hughes, Quentin and
> Rivera all look like busts, but that will all be forgotten by next year.
>  Cano, Butler, Reynolds and Papelbon are the bait to go fishing and further
> stock the cupboard for next year.  All signs pointing up.
>
> 7 – Nukes – It’s beginning to look like the Nukes rebuilding plan is a two
> year plan.  The injuries to Mauer and Piniero, the disappearance of Jaso and
> Rodney and too many holes in both the offense and the pitching mean that
> it’s going to take one more year to put this all together.  Andrus, Hill and
> Lind as well as perhaps some of the pitchers are sure to draw some nice
> chattel.  And if history is instructive, the Nukes won’t wait around like
> some other rebuilding teams deciding when or whether it’s the right time to
> make a move.  The odds on favorite for the 2012 title.
>
> 6 – Angry Young Men – The great thing about this season is that any of the
> top 6 teams could win it all.  The Angry Young Men have more reason to
> consolidate things for next year and are therefore predicted to do exactly
> that.  But if they decide to give it a go, they could certainly challenge
> for the Damon.  The challenges start with the absence of speed.  In this
> game, no speed costs you in two categories since speed translates into runs.
>  And, sure enough, the AYM come up short in that category as well.  Couple
> that with questionable batting average and it would take some serious work
> to fix the offense if all systems are go for 2011.  But if Doug is willing
> to move guys like Hellickson, Drabek and Ackley, those holes will get
> filled.  I’m betting that Doug is looking for a stronger shot at a title
> that a little patience will bring, so he settles in at #6, but the ball is
> in Doug’s court.  This is a #6 rating with an arrow up.
>
> 5 – Brats – Any team with an offense built around Miguel Cabrera and Nelson
> Cruz can’t be overlooked.  But there’s not much speed and this team is
> almost certain to have a brutal average.  That means that the pitching has
> to overcome those faults.  And with Slowey a reliever (and on the DL), James
> Shields looking overpriced, guys like Johnson, Hochevar, Mazzaro and others
> looking thoroughly ordinary (at best) and Soria, while great, not enough to
> earn more than 5-6 points in saves, there’s likely not enough here to bring
> a title.
>
> 4 – Berliners – The crown rests heavy.  But the presence of the crown
> signifies royalty and this squad has nobility written all over it.  How the
> league let the champ return with this kind of talent is hard to fathom.
>  There are some holes in this offense, including an empty corner slot
> (Teahen) a questionable middle slot (Casilla) and a need for some young
> outfielders to prove they’re for real (Jackson and Snider).  But the
> foundation of a 40+ point offense are present.  The pitching needs to round
> into form, but the base of Verlander and Lester is a very nice place to
> start.  With lots of solid youngsters to swap in and out of the lineup
> (Porcello, Cecil, Francis, Tomlin, Matusz and new stud pickup Harrison) the
> starting pitching should be solid.  The problem is the relief corps.  Or in
> the immortal words of Ozzie, this team “has no *&^%*&$ closer”.  Thornton
> looks like a bust and none of the middle relievers look likely to garner
> saves.  So it’s going to take some trades to get this team over the hump.
>  But history suggests that this team has the gumption to pull off the key
> deals necessary to make a run at it.  Is there a repeat title in the
> reigning champs?  Just maybe.
>
> 3 – Calamari – The can be little doubt that the Calamari had a great draft
> and that has put the Calamari in the thick of things for 2011.  A very
> strong pitching staff bolstered by King Felix, Dan Haren and CJ Wilson
> provide the foundation.  The key to the pitching staff will be Joe Nathan
> rediscovering his form.  If that comes (and it should), there’s a stable
> base of 35+ pitching points.  The question then, is the offense.  The loss
> of Manny is a serious blow since there are no obvious replacements on the
> Calamari reserve roster.  But there are no other gaping holes and a high
> upside guy like Lowrie is indicative of the potential of this offense.
>  Jim’s not normally a wheeler-dealer but if ever there was a year to go for
> the glory, this is it.
>
> 2 – Red Hots – The man who should be king…..but won’t.  There’s no
> challenging the fact that the Red Hots went into the draft as overwhelming
> favorites.  A killer list of offensive keepers meant all Rich had to do was
> play it safe and come out of the draft with a solid pitching staff.  But
> someone needed one more cup of coffee.  Perhaps the Berliners were stupid to
> overpay for Lester and Verlander, but the Red Hots were the one team that
> could afford to outbid him.  Instead they ended up with a rotation of David
> Price and then…well….trouble.  Brandon Morrow is coming off a great season,
> but one in which his workload increased dramatically.  And, what do you
> know, he’s hurt.  Gavin Floyd turned to crap at the end of the season and
> appears to have settled into that status.  The only other guys that can help
> out are the potentially done for the year Duchscherer and a thoroughly
> mediocre Jeff Niemann.  The stable of middle relievers won’t really hurt,
> but it also won’t help.  The injury to Longoria shouldn’t be a problem as
> long as he heals quickly.  The bigger problem is that (putting aside the
> difficulty this team has in dealing its prospects) it really doesn’t have
> much to deal.  Hosmer is top notch, but after that the cupboard looks a
> little bare.  Who knows, maybe Yorvit will bring a huge return.  This is a
> very good team and just might get it done.  But the early betting line says
> the draft day hiccups will cost it a title due to the good fortune of the
> following team.
>
> 1 – Klein Nine – Is this the year it all comes together for the Klein Nine?
>  Barring an inability to re-focus his attention on winning rather than
> bashing his former co-conspirator Mark Blocker (remember COPS), the answer
> should be YES.  He’s certainly gotten all the breaks so far.  No serious
> injuries to worry about coupled with a strong core of veteran players
> leading the charge (A Rod, Kinsler, Beltre, Gonzalez) makes the Nine look
> hard to beat.  The offense will be awesome and should put up big totals
> across the board.  This is the top offensive team and by a potentially
> healthy margin.  Almost shockingly, though, the pitching staff looks okay.
>  Guthrie and Jackson provide the base and the supporting cast looks strong
> as well.  The ERA and Ratio may not be pretty, but there will be plenty of
> wins and strikeouts.  Rivera and the soon to be closing Uehara will be
> pulling down saves, so this team should garner more than enough pitching
> points to put it over the top.  Of course, all of that assumes that as we
> approach the finish line, lady luck and Mr. B don’t once again conspire to
> bring this storied franchise down to earth.  Don’t bet on it.
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