[USML Announce] Picks and Pans
Blocker, Mark B.
mblocker at Sidley.com
Tue Feb 19 19:42:47 EST 2013
Jeff: I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results. The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct. For example, if you label someone as a “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick “correct”? I took “pick” to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite. Otherwise, where is the real expertise? Thoughts?
In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit!
-- Mark B.
From: announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] On Behalf Of Jeffrey Winick
Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM
To: announce at usml.net
Subject: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is.
Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it. Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting. There were some real clunkers last year: (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well: (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman).
Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%). Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).
Here's the full list:
Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT
Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT
Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT
Brandon Belt – PAN – CORRECT
Ryan Braun – PICK – CORRECT
Jay Bruce – PICK - CORRECT
Billy Butler – PICK – CORRECT
Miguel Cabrera – PICK – CORRECT
Robinson Cano – PICK – CORRECT
Carl Crawford – PICK – INCORRECT
Ryan Doumit – PICK – CORRECT
Adam Dunn – PAN – INCORRECT
Jacoby Ellsbury – PAN – CORRECT
David Freese – PAN – INCORRECT
Curtis Granderson – PAN – INCORRECT
Eric Hosmer – PICK – INCORRECT
Derek Jeter – PAN – INCORRECT
Jesus Montero – PICK – INCORRECT
Justin Morneau – PICK – CORRECT
Martin Prado – PICK – CORRECT
Jayson Werth – PAN – CORRECT
Matt Wieters – PICK – CORRECT
Heath Bell – PAN – CORRECT
Yu Darvish – PAN – INCORRECT
RA Dickey – PICK – CORRECT
Cole Hamels – PICK – CORRECT
Tommy Hanson – PAN – CORRECT
Kenley Jansen – PICK – CORRECT
Ubaldo Jimenez – PAN – CORRECT
Mat Latos – PICK – CORRECT
Matt Moore – PICK - CORRECT
Bud Norris – PICK – INCORRECT
Michael Pineda – PICK – INCORRECT
David Robertson – PICK – INCORRECT
Chris Sale – PICK – CORRECT
Sergio Santos – PICK – INCORRECT
Max Scherzer – PICK – CORRECT
Huston Street – PICK – CORRECT
Justin Verlander – PICK – CORRECT
Jordan Walden – PAN – CORRECT
Jordan Zimmerman – PICK - CORRECT
Jeff
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