[USML Announce] Picks and Pans

Blocker, Mark B. mblocker at Sidley.com
Tue Feb 19 19:42:47 EST 2013


Jeff:  I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results.  The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct.  For example, if you label someone as a “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick “correct”?  I took “pick” to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite.  Otherwise, where is the real expertise?  Thoughts?

 

In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit!

 

  -- Mark B.

 

From: announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] On Behalf Of Jeffrey Winick
Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM
To: announce at usml.net
Subject: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans

 

Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is. 

 

Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it.  Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting.  There were some real clunkers last year:  (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well:  (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman).

 

Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%).  Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).

 

Here's the full list:

 

Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT

Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT

Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT

Brandon Belt – PAN – CORRECT

Ryan Braun – PICK – CORRECT

Jay Bruce – PICK - CORRECT

Billy Butler – PICK – CORRECT

Miguel Cabrera – PICK – CORRECT

Robinson Cano – PICK – CORRECT

Carl Crawford – PICK – INCORRECT

Ryan Doumit – PICK – CORRECT

Adam Dunn – PAN – INCORRECT

Jacoby Ellsbury – PAN – CORRECT

David Freese – PAN – INCORRECT

Curtis Granderson – PAN – INCORRECT

Eric Hosmer – PICK – INCORRECT

Derek Jeter – PAN – INCORRECT

Jesus Montero – PICK – INCORRECT

Justin Morneau – PICK – CORRECT

Martin Prado – PICK – CORRECT

Jayson Werth – PAN – CORRECT

Matt Wieters – PICK – CORRECT

 

Heath Bell – PAN – CORRECT

Yu Darvish – PAN – INCORRECT

RA Dickey – PICK – CORRECT

Cole Hamels – PICK – CORRECT

Tommy Hanson – PAN – CORRECT

Kenley Jansen – PICK – CORRECT

Ubaldo Jimenez – PAN – CORRECT

Mat Latos – PICK – CORRECT

Matt Moore – PICK - CORRECT

Bud Norris – PICK – INCORRECT

Michael Pineda – PICK – INCORRECT

David Robertson – PICK – INCORRECT

Chris Sale – PICK – CORRECT

Sergio Santos – PICK – INCORRECT

Max Scherzer – PICK – CORRECT

Huston Street – PICK – CORRECT

Justin Verlander – PICK – CORRECT

Jordan Walden – PAN – CORRECT

Jordan Zimmerman – PICK - CORRECT

 

Jeff


 
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