[USML Announce] Picks and Pans

Richard Robbins rerobbins at itinker.net
Wed Feb 20 11:36:29 EST 2013


You prefer Skilling?

On Tue, Feb 19, 2013 at 9:51 PM, <springkerb at aol.com> wrote:

> She's cute, but in that big girl, field hockey kinda way.
>
> But while you're on the subject:
> http://www.menshealth.com/health/erectile-dysfunction-drugs
>
>
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From: Richard Robbins <rerobbins at itinker.net>
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 8:23 pm
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
>
>  Skilling?  Nah. I'm partial to CBS meteorologist and former Indianapolis
> Colt cheerleader Megan Glaros.  We are talking about fantasy picks, right?
>
> On Tuesday, February 19, 2013, wrote:
>
>>  Also, the sample size is pretty small, and pitching is notoriously
>> unpredictable.  I think we can concede that there was a year when Jeff was
>> arguably right more often that he was wrong.  That's not as good as Tom
>> Skilling, but what the heck.
>>
>> Mark
>>
>>
>>  -----Original Message-----
>> From: Jeffrey Winick <jhwinick at aol.com>
>> To: announce <announce at usml.net>
>> Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 7:21 pm
>> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
>>
>> A fair point.  But I think if you read the commentary, it makes it easier
>> to determine whether the Pick/Pan was correct.  For example, Verlander and
>> Cano were picks that were identified as safe bets to put up similar if not
>> better numbers than the prior year.  Those are correct assessments since
>> they did exactly what I predicted they'd do.  Most of time I identified not
>> only that they were a pick or a pan, but I predicted what their performance
>> would be.  My scorecard is based on a comparison of the descriptions as
>> much as the tagline of Pick/Pan.
>>
>>  Jeff
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker at Sidley.com>
>> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>> Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 6:42 pm
>> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
>>
>>   Jeff:  I actually went through this exercise last year, but never
>> published the results.  The question I struggled with is how to assess
>> whether a pick/pan was correct.  For example, if you label someone as a
>> “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior
>> years, is that pick “correct”?  I took “pick” to mean the player
>> significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite.
>> Otherwise, where is the real expertise?  Thoughts?
>>
>> In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are
>> so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that,
>> in and of itself, makes you a pundit!
>>
>>   -- Mark B.
>>
>>  *From:* announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] *On
>> Behalf Of *Jeffrey Winick
>> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM
>> *To:* announce at usml.net
>> *Subject:* [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
>>
>> Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks
>> and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert
>> really is.
>>
>>  Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it.  Bottom
>> line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting.  There were some
>> real clunkers last year:  (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and
>> (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as
>> well:  (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and
>> Zimmerman).
>>
>>  Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%).  Of my 19 pitching
>> Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).
>>
>>  Here's the full list:
>>
>>  Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT
>>  Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT
>>  Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT
>>
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