[USML Announce] Picks and Pans

Thu Feb 21 12:24:18 EST 2013

   And 4th place owner brings Heidi Klum.... 

RG 

----- Original Message -----

From: "Jim Barrett" <chicagojab at gmail.com> 
To: "USML Announcements" <announce at usml.net> 
Sent: Thursday, February 21, 2013 10:46:55 AM 
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans 

I propose a new rule - last place team brings donuts. 

Sent from my iPhone 

On Feb 21, 2013, at 11:16 AM, Jeffrey Winick < jwinick at harriswinick.com > wrote: 

“peddle to Brad for a first-rate position player” 

Finally some acknowledgment of the Myers trade.  Or is this a reference to the Trout trade?  Or the Montero trade?  ;-) 

What time are we getting started on the 17 th ?  And who’s bringing the donuts this year? 

Jeff 

From: announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] On Behalf Of JOHN FRUIT 
Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 4:50 AM 
To: announce at usml.net 
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans 

sounds like Jeff needs to revert to the security analyst methodology:  strong buy/buy/sell/reduce/neutral/overweight/underweight/peddle to Brad for a first-rate position player. 

To: announce at usml.net 
From: jhwinick at aol.com 
Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2013 20:20:22 -0500 
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans 

A fair point.  But I think if you read the commentary, it makes it easier to determine whether the Pick/Pan was correct.  For example, Verlander and Cano were picks that were identified as safe bets to put up similar if not better numbers than the prior year.  Those are correct assessments since they did exactly what I predicted they'd do.  Most of time I identified not only that they were a pick or a pan, but I predicted what their performance would be.  My scorecard is based on a comparison of the descriptions as much as the tagline of Pick/Pan. 

Jeff 

-----Original Message----- 
From: Blocker, Mark B. < mblocker at Sidley.com > 
To: USML Announcements < announce at usml.net > 
Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 6:42 pm 
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans 

Jeff:  I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results.  The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct.  For example, if you label someone as a “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick “correct”?  I took “pick” to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite.  Otherwise, where is the real expertise?  Thoughts? 

In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit! 

  -- Mark B. 

From: announce-bounces at usml.net [ mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net ] On Behalf Of Jeffrey Winick 
Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM 
To: announce at usml.net 
Subject: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans 

Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is. 

Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it.  Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting.  There were some real clunkers last year:  (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well:  (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman). 

Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%).  Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%). 

Here's the full list: 

Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT 

Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT 

Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT 

Brandon Belt – PAN – CORRECT 

Ryan Braun – PICK – CORRECT 

Jay Bruce – PICK - CORRECT 

Billy Butler – PICK – CORRECT 

Miguel Cabrera – PICK – CORRECT 

Robinson Cano – PICK – CORRECT 

Carl Crawford – PICK – INCORRECT 

Ryan Doumit – PICK – CORRECT 

Adam Dunn – PAN – INCORRECT 

Jacoby Ellsbury – PAN – CORRECT 

David Freese – PAN – INCORRECT 

Curtis Granderson – PAN – INCORRECT 

Eric Hosmer – PICK – INCORRECT 

Derek Jeter – PAN – INCORRECT 

Jesus Montero – PICK – INCORRECT 

Justin Morneau – PICK – CORRECT 

Martin Prado – PICK – CORRECT 

Jayson Werth – PAN – CORRECT 

Matt Wieters – PICK – CORRECT 

Heath Bell – PAN – CORRECT 

Yu Darvish – PAN – INCORRECT 

RA Dickey – PICK – CORRECT 

Cole Hamels – PICK – CORRECT 

Tommy Hanson – PAN – CORRECT 

Kenley Jansen – PICK – CORRECT 

Ubaldo Jimenez – PAN – CORRECT 

Mat Latos – PICK – CORRECT 

Matt Moore – PICK - CORRECT 

Bud Norris – PICK – INCORRECT 

Michael Pineda – PICK – INCORRECT 

David Robertson – PICK – INCORRECT 

Chris Sale – PICK – CORRECT 

Sergio Santos – PICK – INCORRECT 

Max Scherzer – PICK – CORRECT 

Huston Street – PICK – CORRECT 

Justin Verlander – PICK – CORRECT 

Jordan Walden – PAN – CORRECT 

Jordan Zimmerman – PICK - CORRECT 

Jeff 

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