[USML Announce] Why Berliners and Angries Will Not Be Damonized in 2013, Part I

Richard Robbins rerobbins at itinker.net
Sat Jul 27 10:50:20 EDT 2013


Right on Jeff!


On Sat, Jul 27, 2013 at 9:44 AM, Jeffrey Winick <jhwinick at aol.com> wrote:

> Oh, he'll part with him alright.  All it will cost you is an arm and a leg
> and a willingness to acknowledge your good fortune at being given the
> privilege of trading for young Mr. Franklin.  But here's the TRUTH.  Mark
> Blocker's doppleganger just posted his thoughts.  It reads to me like you
> ought to be barking up a different tree:
>
> [image: Eric Karabell]
>
> It’s not a surprise that Franklin is hitting for power, as his short,
> compact swing figures to result in at least 15 home runs annually. He
> strikes out a bit too much and certainly looks like he needs more work
> defensively at second base, but the Mariners can’t complain about his
> offensive upside so far, as hitting eight home runs in 49 games for a
> middle infielder is pretty good. It’s not Yasiel Puig, but he’s not a
> middle infielder, either. *Franklin is actually one of the more popular
> drops in ESPN leagues*, since he’s been slumping of late, but he’s likely
> to end up with double digits in home runs and perhaps stolen bases. In a
> fantasy world where the likes of Neil Walker are annually relied upon, I
> think Franklin projects as a *17th-rounder* in ESPN drafts next season.
> His risk is batting average, but if he ends up at .260 or so, there will be
> no complaints.
>
> Andy, it looks to me like Rich needs a catcher now that the very
> disappointing Mike Zunino is out for the season with another in a long line
> of injuries.  I'd offer him  package of George Kottaras and Drew Smyly and
> see if he bites.  That strikes me as about fair value.
>
> Jeff
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From: Andrew Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Sent: Fri, Jul 26, 2013 6:42 pm
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Why Berliners and Angries Will Not Be
> Damonized in 2013, Part I
>
>  As Rich will not part with young Nick - even if that imperils his title
> chances - the answer is yes.  Yes I can.  Please provide me THE TRUTH about
> Nick Franklin.
>
>  Respectfully,
>
>  -Andy
>
> Sent from my iPad
>
> On Jul 26, 2013, at 6:16 PM, Brad Jansen <bljansen at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>  The Truth about Nick Franklin? Do you think you can handle the Truth
> about Nick Franklin?
>
>
> On Fri, Jul 26, 2013 at 1:29 PM, Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>  What Kerber said.  Thanks, Brad.
>>
>> Can you disseminate THE TRUTH about Nick Franklin, too?
>>
>>  Sincerely,
>>
>>  -Andy
>>
>>
>>  On Fri, Jul 26, 2013 at 1:25 PM, <springkerb at aol.com> wrote:
>>
>>>  Thanks, Brad.  I was thinking about making Jeffrey an offer for
>>> Machado.  Now I know THE TRUTH!
>>>
>>> Mark
>>>
>>>
>>>  -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Brad Jansen <bljansen at gmail.com>
>>> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>>> Sent: Fri, Jul 26, 2013 12:04 pm
>>> Subject: [USML Announce] Why Berliners and Angries Will Not Be Damonized
>>> in 2013, Part I
>>>
>>>   FROM espn:
>>>
>>>  If the playoffs started now, the Baltimore Orioles<http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles>would be in -- they hold a one-game lead over the Rangers (who lost
>>> Thursday afternoon to the Yankees) as they go into their game tonight
>>> against the Royals. That lead is obviously precarious, with the Yankees and
>>> Indians trying to hang in there, and made even more precarious by the
>>> doubts that Chris Davis<http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29170/chris-davis>and Manny
>>> Machado <http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31097/manny-machado> can
>>> repeat their monster first halves.
>>>
>>> Let's start with Machado. His defense is so superlative that it's easy
>>> to overlook his offense, but he hit .310 with 39 doubles in the first half.
>>> For most of the season, he's been on pace to break Earl Webb's record of 67
>>> doubles, but that pace has dropped to 62 as he's struggled at the plate in
>>> recent weeks. In fact, his offensive output has actually been sliding since
>>> June. Through May 31, he was hitting .331/.363/.515; since then he's hit
>>> .271/.293/.397 with 41 strikeouts and five walks in 47 games.
>>>
>>> As Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information reports, "Machado's
>>> approach has completely fallen apart since June 1 -- he's striking out more
>>> often, walking less, swinging through pitches more often and chasing more
>>> pitches out of the strike zone." Justin reports that Machado has especially
>>> struggled with two strikes; through May, he was hitting .267 with two
>>> strikes, but since then he's hitting .170 with a chase percentage that's
>>> increased from 33 percent to 47 percent thanks largely to a heavy dosage of
>>> sliders that he can't lay off. In other words, typical struggles you expect
>>> to see from a kid who just turned 21 and isn't named Mike Trout<http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout>.
>>>
>>>
>>> Machado has also struggled against good fastballs since June 1; on
>>> pitches clocked at 93-plus mph, he's hit .093 with a .230 OPS, worst in
>>> baseball. The sample size is small -- just 163 pitches -- but all the
>>> indicators are down compared to the first two months, with a swing-and-miss
>>> percentage up from 15 percent to 23 percent and line drive rate down from
>>> 24 percent to 9 percent. He's just not hitting the good heat. Machado
>>> hasn't missed a game, so while it sounds a little bit like a young hitter
>>> struggling to adjust, it also looks like a guy who could use a day off.
>>>
>>> As for Davis, Joe Sheehan pointed out last week …
>>>
>>> Through the end of May, Davis was running the lowest strikeout rate
>>> (23%) and best K/UIBB (2.3) of his career. Some of the improvement in his
>>> walk rate might have reasonably been credited to the power he was showing
>>> -- there is some relationship between power and walks drawn, but by and
>>> large, he looked like a more mature version of his established self. For
>>> statheads, it was an easy story to sell. We love to make the point that
>>> being patient at the plate isn't just about drawing walks, but about
>>> getting better pitches to hit and producing better results on those
>>> pitches.
>>>
>>> What's happened since the end of May has put the lie to that. For while
>>> Davis has continued to hit for power, with 18 homers and a .678 slugging,
>>> he has gone back to being an even worse version of his old self. Davis
>>> posted a 60/7 K/UIBB in those two months, striking out in 36 percent of his
>>> plate appearances.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Joe wrote that a week ago. The numbers now read .261/.320/.636 since
>>> June 1 with 69 strikeouts and eight unintentional walks. That's still a
>>> huge offensive force, as long as the balls keep leaving the park, but it's
>>> a big drop from the MVP candidate hitting .356/.442/.749 through May and
>>> closer to Raul Ibanez<http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3504/raul-ibanez>than Miguel
>>> Cabrera <http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5544/miguel-cabrera>. Like
>>> Machado, Davis has started to expand the strike zone; he chased 28 percent
>>> of pitches out of the zone the first two months, but that has increased to
>>> 35 percent since. As a result, his batting average and on-base percentage
>>> have decreased.
>>>
>>> The net effect is that Machado and Davis are now using up a lot more
>>> outs to create runs. Through May, the Orioles averaged 5.1 runs per game;
>>> since June 1, they've averaged 4.5 runs per game.
>>>
>>> If Machado is a young player the league has figured out (for now) and
>>> Davis is, as Joe wrote, a "35-homer guy having a year," then we shouldn't
>>> necessarily expect them to reverse course back to what they did in April
>>> and May. Which means the Orioles, if they want to hold on to the wild card
>>> or catch the Red Sox and Rays, need some other players to step up.
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
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>>
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