[USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux

Tue Feb 12 13:39:06 EST 2019

I'm good with that - and also vote yes on the first question.

-Andy

On Tue, Feb 12, 2019 at 1:19 PM Frank Luby via Announce <announce at usml.net>
wrote:

> Ditto.
>
> - Frank
>
> On Tuesday, February 12, 2019, 12:16:59 PM CST, springkerb--- via Announce
> <announce at usml.net> wrote:
>
>
> That's a good approach.  Seems like we have a pretty solid consensus on
> reflecting the value of holds in some way.  You can put a check in the
> first box for me.
>
> Mark
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jeffrey Winick <jwinick at hwhlegal.com>
> To: 'USML Announcements' <announce at usml.net>; 'mblocker at sidley.com' <
> mblocker at sidley.com>
> Cc: 'springkerb at aol.com' <springkerb at aol.com>
> Sent: Tue, Feb 12, 2019 12:03 pm
> Subject: RE: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> I propose that we hold the following vote:
>
> __Change from Saves only to a calculus that includes holds effective with
> the 2020 season.
> __No Change
>
> If there is a majority that agrees to make the change, as I expect there
> will be, then we can have a second vote as between the two alternatives:
> (i) saves plus holds and (ii) saves plus ½ holds.
>
> What say you commissioner?
>
> Jeffrey H. Winick
> *Harris Winick Harris LLP*
> 333 West Wacker Drive
> Suite 2060
> Chicago, Illinois 60606
> Tel: 312.662.4600 *|* Fax: 312.662.4599
> Direct: 312.662.4602 *|* Cell: 312.841.2817
> www.hwhlegal.com *| *jwinick at hwhlegal.com
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Announce [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] *On Behalf Of *springkerb---
> via Announce
> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 12, 2019 11:55 AM
> *To:* mblocker at sidley.com; announce at usml.net
> *Cc:* springkerb at aol.com
> *Subject:* Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> Not so slight.  In the Luby comparison, Alvarado jumps from 10th to 3rd.
> Roe jumps from 14th to 6th.  And a bunch of nobodies after about #20 go
> from the obscurity they deserve to real value.
>
> Mark K
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker at sidley.com>
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Cc: springkerb at aol.com <springkerb at aol.com>
> Sent: Tue, Feb 12, 2019 11:49 am
> Subject: RE: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
> Point taken.  “Substantial value”?  Seems the likely impact is slight
> decrease in value of closers and slight increase in value of some middle
> relievers.
>
> *MARK B. BLOCKER*
>
>
>
> *SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP *+1 312 853 6097
> mblocker at sidley.com
>
> *From:* Announce <announce-bounces at usml.net> *On Behalf Of *springkerb---
> via Announce
> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 12, 2019 11:44 AM
> *To:* announce at usml.net
> *Cc:* springkerb at aol.com
> *Subject:* Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> To Jim's point re multiple holds being available per game, the main thing
> I was trying to do w/ my approach is to value both holds and saves equally, *relative
> to the number of saves and holds available*.  The ratio was pretty close
> to 2:1 last year (actually about 2.1:1).  So if we go to a 2:1 ratio, then
> we'd be valuing all available holds and all available saves approximately
> equally.  I think if you look at Buddha's comparison, the most obvious and
> questionable shifts in value involve middle relievers that aren't
> particularly good pitchers but get a lot of appearances in the sixth or
> seventh inning--e.g., Chaz Roe.  To me, those guys are greatly overvalued
> by a 1:1 ratio.  Particularly when you get down to the guys below about the
> top 20, the 1:1 ratio gives substantial value to some guys who just aren't
> very good pitchers.
>
> Mark
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jim Barrett <chicagojab at gmail.com>
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Sent: Tue, Feb 12, 2019 10:59 am
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
> That’s assuming that everyone’s goal is to value saves and holds equally
> important.  From my perspective, I’d like to recognize holds as having some
> value but I still view saves more important for several reasons. Like it or
> not but saves are an official statistic of MLB but I don’t believe holds
> are. Only 1 save can be given out in a game whereas more than 1 hold can be
> given.  Baseball is a tradition bound game more than most sports and the
> save and closer has the tradition behind it whereas holds do not. If we all
> want to go total saber, we’d get rid of Wins and BA too. So in sum if we
> make a change, I’m in favor of weighting saves more heavily. And no on
> future requests to have a WAR  or OPS+ category! :-)
>
> Jim
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Feb 12, 2019, at 9:49 AM, Blocker, Mark B. via Announce <
> announce at usml.net> wrote:
> Want to give this more thought, but I think I agree with John’s point that
> 2x saves puts too much emphasis on saves and defeats our goal of treating
> holds as equally important.
>
> Also, here are the options Onroto currently allows.  I believe the math on
> option two works out the same as what some have proposed on a relative
> basis:
>
> HOSV (Holds + Saves)
>
> SAVES2 (Saves + Holds / 2)
>
> *MARK B. BLOCKER*
>
>
>
> *SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP *+1 312 853 6097
> mblocker at sidley.com
>
> *From:* Announce <announce-bounces at usml.net> *On Behalf Of *Bill Strotman
> via Announce
> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 12, 2019 9:37 AM
> *To:* USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> *Cc:* Bill Strotman <bbuddhas at aol.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> Who cares what’s most realistic.   It’s fantasy sports
>
> We give same weighting to SB as dingers.   That’s wrong.
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Feb 12, 2019, at 9:14 AM, Frank Luby via Announce <announce at usml.net>
> wrote:
>
> Good points, Mark.
>
> This version re-sorts the right-hand data to make Mark's points clear.
>
> On Tuesday, February 12, 2019, 8:54:09 AM CST, springkerb <
> springkerb at aol.com> wrote:
>
>
> To me, the 2x saves version does a better job of identifying pitchers who
> can reliably hold a lead--which I think is what we're trying to measure
> here.  For example, the version that values saves and holds equally says
> that Jose Alvarado is third in the league.  He's a good reliever, but I
> don't think he was more reliablelast year than Trienen or Chapman.
> Similarly, the equally weighted version says the Chaz Roe (Chaz Roe?) was
> the sixth most reliable holder of leads in the AL.  That's nuts.
>
> In general, major league managers use their best relievers later in the
> games, and that makes sense, since holding a lead gets more valuable later
> in the game.  A clean ninth inning improves the team's likelihood of
> winning more when there are fewer innings left to play.  So, at least to my
> eye, the 2x approach does a better job of rewarding better relievers.
>
> Mark
>
>
> Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone
>
> -------- Original message --------
> From: JOHN FRUIT <jtfruit at msn.com>
> Date: 2/12/19 5:19 AM (GMT-06:00)
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>, Frank Luby <
> zachfehsvater at yahoo.com>, Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>
> Cc: springkerb <springkerb at aol.com>
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> What's apparent is that the 2x saves method seems to put even more
> statistical emphasis on the saves category, kinda defeating the purpose.
>
>
>
> Sent from my Verizon, Samsung Galaxy smartphone
>
>
> -------- Original message --------
> From: springkerb via Announce <announce at usml.net>
> Date: 2/11/19 10:15 PM (GMT-06:00)
> To: Frank Luby <zachfehsvater at yahoo.com>, Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>,
> USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Cc: springkerb <springkerb at aol.com>
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> Cool.  It's an interesting comparison.
>
>
>
> Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone
>
> -------- Original message --------
> From: Frank Luby <zachfehsvater at yahoo.com>
> Date: 2/11/19 10:02 PM (GMT-06:00)
> To: Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>, USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>
> Cc: springkerb <springkerb at aol.com>
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> To throw some data into this discussion, here are the top 50 relievers in
> the AL last season ranked by the SV+HLD method and the 2xSV+HLD, in a side
> by side comparison ...
>
> On Monday, February 11, 2019, 9:44:36 PM CST, springkerb via Announce <
> announce at usml.net> wrote:
>
>
> I'd like you to reconsider the ratio.  There are about twice as many holds
> as saves. Weighting them equally would actually make the 7th and 8th inning
> guys more valuable than closers, which just doesn't seem right.
>
> Mark
>
>
>
> Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone
>
> -------- Original message --------
> From: Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>
> Date: 2/11/19 7:33 PM (GMT-06:00)
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Cc: springkerb <springkerb at aol.com>
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> Nope ... we talked about it, but never voted on it.  I'm actually
> advocating Saves + Holds, not 2XSaves + Holds.  I'm fine with 2020
> implementation.  I'll wait another day and then make a formal proposal.
>
> -Andy
>
> On Mon, Feb 11, 2019 at 7:02 PM springkerb via Announce <announce at usml.net>
> wrote:
>
> See my other email.  Thought thiswas a done deal for this year.
>
> Mark
>
>
>
> Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone
>
> -------- Original message --------
> From: Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>
> Date: 2/11/19 4:16 PM (GMT-06:00)
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> That's four quick positive responses.  Eager to hear others ... and
> whether people would generally prefer to implement in 2020.
>
> -Andy
>
> On Mon, Feb 11, 2019 at 5:01 PM JOHN FRUIT <jtfruit at msn.com> wrote:
>
> Yeah, Josh Hader struck out like 50 Cubs in 10+ innings of work and had
> nary a save.
>
>
>
> Sent from my Verizon, Samsung Galaxy smartphone
>
>
> -------- Original message --------
> From: Frank Luby via Announce <announce at usml.net>
> Date: 2/11/19 3:38 PM (GMT-06:00)
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Cc: Frank Luby <zachfehsvater at yahoo.com>
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>
> What’s a closer ...?
>
> Seriously though, I’m with Andy. Gives a purpose and a strategy to those
> many many pitchers I refer to as DNH guys (as in “do no harm”).
>
> I would be fine with immediate implementation.
>
> - Frank
>
>
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> > On Feb 11, 2019, at 3:25 PM, Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > I proposed this last spring and received a distinctly unenthusiastic
> response.  But I am re-proposing that we move to Saves + Holds as a
> category instead of just Saves.  That better reflects the reality of MLB
> pitching value today.  It also would end what is, IMHO, an inordinate focus
> on playing the "closer carousel" in our league.
> >
> > I would be up for doing this immediately -- and I say that as someone
> who will otherwise retain a closer.  But I suppose the typical way of doing
> this would be to make it effective next season.
> >
> > Last year, we agreed to implement the change if we voted to do so by
> mid-season.  But the proposal died for lack of interest.
> >
> > Thoughts?
> >
> > -Andy
> > _______________________________________________
> > Announce mailing list
> > Announce at usml.net
> > http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__usml.net_mailman_listinfo_announce-5Fusml.net&d=DwMFaQ&c=Od00qP2XTg0tXf_H69-T2w&r=WbAFAXbG7On4UBymjb2-zZ6uBgn3IoYJQbFZiA6qMRU&m=mvu12n3VZPpZw0FxT6brzBrKWdMI4BnsULLPzD-4E1c&s=5vo53y_fbBL2CGnhyphubf1PmZkITmNWgtp3tfLP2ls&e=>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Announce mailing list
> Announce at usml.net
> http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__usml.net_mailman_listinfo_announce-5Fusml.net&d=DwMFaQ&c=Od00qP2XTg0tXf_H69-T2w&r=WbAFAXbG7On4UBymjb2-zZ6uBgn3IoYJQbFZiA6qMRU&m=mvu12n3VZPpZw0FxT6brzBrKWdMI4BnsULLPzD-4E1c&s=5vo53y_fbBL2CGnhyphubf1PmZkITmNWgtp3tfLP2ls&e=>
> _______________________________________________
> Announce mailing list
> Announce at usml.net
> http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__usml.net_mailman_listinfo_announce-5Fusml.net&d=DwMFaQ&c=Od00qP2XTg0tXf_H69-T2w&r=WbAFAXbG7On4UBymjb2-zZ6uBgn3IoYJQbFZiA6qMRU&m=mvu12n3VZPpZw0FxT6brzBrKWdMI4BnsULLPzD-4E1c&s=5vo53y_fbBL2CGnhyphubf1PmZkITmNWgtp3tfLP2ls&e=>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Announce mailing list
> Announce at usml.net
> http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__usml.net_mailman_listinfo_announce-5Fusml.net&d=DwMFaQ&c=Od00qP2XTg0tXf_H69-T2w&r=WbAFAXbG7On4UBymjb2-zZ6uBgn3IoYJQbFZiA6qMRU&m=mvu12n3VZPpZw0FxT6brzBrKWdMI4BnsULLPzD-4E1c&s=5vo53y_fbBL2CGnhyphubf1PmZkITmNWgtp3tfLP2ls&e=>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Announce mailing list
> Announce at usml.net
> http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__usml.net_mailman_listinfo_announce-5Fusml.net&d=DwMFaQ&c=Od00qP2XTg0tXf_H69-T2w&r=WbAFAXbG7On4UBymjb2-zZ6uBgn3IoYJQbFZiA6qMRU&m=mvu12n3VZPpZw0FxT6brzBrKWdMI4BnsULLPzD-4E1c&s=5vo53y_fbBL2CGnhyphubf1PmZkITmNWgtp3tfLP2ls&e=>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Announce mailing list
> Announce at usml.net
> http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__usml.net_mailman_listinfo_announce-5Fusml.net&d=DwMFaQ&c=Od00qP2XTg0tXf_H69-T2w&r=WbAFAXbG7On4UBymjb2-zZ6uBgn3IoYJQbFZiA6qMRU&m=mvu12n3VZPpZw0FxT6brzBrKWdMI4BnsULLPzD-4E1c&s=5vo53y_fbBL2CGnhyphubf1PmZkITmNWgtp3tfLP2ls&e=>
>
>
>
> ****************************************************************************************************
> This e-mail is sent by a law firm and may contain information that is
> privileged or confidential.
> If you are not the intended recipient, please delete the e-mail and any
> attachments and notify us
> immediately.
>
>
> ****************************************************************************************************
>
> _______________________________________________
> Announce mailing list
> Announce at usml.net
> http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__usml.net_mailman_listinfo_announce-5Fusml.net&d=DwMFaQ&c=Od00qP2XTg0tXf_H69-T2w&r=WbAFAXbG7On4UBymjb2-zZ6uBgn3IoYJQbFZiA6qMRU&m=ToyZfFH73sB4zV8xM1H-sKUtPOVSJIBAU3LCDqSbv5w&s=jbFpf849NXQuYxK6C3vMvaeVLxS5rkSa5-gu-bpJzDk&e=>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Announce mailing list
> Announce at usml.net
> http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__usml.net_mailman_listinfo_announce-5Fusml.net&d=DwMFaQ&c=Od00qP2XTg0tXf_H69-T2w&r=WbAFAXbG7On4UBymjb2-zZ6uBgn3IoYJQbFZiA6qMRU&m=ToyZfFH73sB4zV8xM1H-sKUtPOVSJIBAU3LCDqSbv5w&s=jbFpf849NXQuYxK6C3vMvaeVLxS5rkSa5-gu-bpJzDk&e=>
> _______________________________________________
> Announce mailing list
> Announce at usml.net
> http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
> _______________________________________________
> Announce mailing list
> Announce at usml.net
> http://usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce_usml.net
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://usml.net/pipermail/announce_usml.net/attachments/20190212/52786dcf/attachment-0001.html>