[USML Announce] PIPPIN'S PROJECTIONS ARE BACK!

[Richard E. Robbins]

Welcome back Pippin.  You've been missed.

 

  _____  

From: announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] On Behalf
Of Andrew R. Klein
Sent: Saturday, March 20, 2004 6:54 PM
To: announce at usml.net
Subject: [USML Announce] PIPPIN'S PROJECTIONS ARE BACK!

 

USML Season XVI: Pippin Returns!

"I'm back."

-Pippin, March 20, 2004

A. History

Sixteen seasons. Damn. We've been playing for a long time.

Many things, of course, have changed since the USML's inaugural season. On
the roto side of life, for example, we now scour up-to-the minute internet
stats instead of once-a-week reports. In real life, we've seen our families
grow, our mortgage debt increase, and, most noticeably, our bald spots
expand. (And before you protest that last crack, Kerber , let the record
reflect that some of us remember when you drafted with a full head of
*brown* hair!) Hell, we've been playing so long that two players at this
year's draft table were in diapers the first time that Blocker called out
"Doug Jones for a dollar!" 

But, while some things have changed, others have stayed the same. As always,
this year's draft concluded with a gaggle of owners crowded around Winick,
anxiously awaiting the verdict from his super-secret, pay-only guru-based
information. The outcome was predictable. "I," declared Winick, "will win." 

As some of us recall, Winick's post-draft victory proclamations used to
drive Alex Liberman crazy. To calm Liberman, the "Candyass Predictions" were
first issued in 1991, projecting that the Klein Nine (rather than Winick)
would capture the crown. 

Winick, of course, scoffed. 

Blocker gasped. 

But when October of '91 rolled around, Candyass proved right on target. 

Two years later, K-9 mascot Pippin the Dog (then a one-year old pup) joined
the anti-Winick projection forces. At the time, no one could have foreseen
Pippin's incredible gift for Rotisserie clairvoyance. But for the next four
years, Pippin's predictions were astoundingly accurate. 

In 1998, Pippin walked away. Why? Some think that Jeff Cohen slipped
something into her water bowl during a visit to Birmingham. Others blame
threats from Brad Jansen. But with the Riptorn Reign of Terror over (at
least for now), Pippin has decided to once again step to the plate. 

So, without further ado, here are Pippin's 2004 projections.

B. The Projections

1. HOOSIER DADDIES

The Daddies have improved dramatically since Pippin was last on the scene.
In those days, the league played Gammons like a fiddle, bidding up mediocre
Orioles to his never-ending detriment. Today, however, Rick is better known
for cold-blooded trades (can anyone say Bob "One Elbow" Wickman?) and
draft-table savvy. This year, Pippin loves the Daddies' modestly-priced
power (Sweeney at $23, Glaus at $20, and Juan Gonzales at $19). She also
admires a pitching staff that features a strong top of the rotation (Hudson,
Loaiza, and Moyer) along with two closers. Winick may jump out to an early
lead. But, come October, the title will go to Gammons.

2. BERLINERS

Winick says he'll win in a walk. Robbins' computer agrees. But Pippin says,
"not so fast"! Jeff and his acolytes might spin it differently, but Pippin
knows that the Vazquez purchase was a mistake, leaving the Berliners
vulnerable on offense. One big injury (Tejada?), one big trade to the NL
(Soriano?), and suddenly Jeff's lineup is not so invincible. Yes, Pippin
knows that Crawford and Blalock are young stars, unlikely to slump. But,
after them, there's a lot of Kotsays and Karroses and Melhuses out there.
Pippin certainly sees Winick making an early run. But, in the end, it's the
runners-up circle for the Berliners.

3. ANGRY YOUNG MEN

True to his team's name, Doug stormed away from the draft table, muttering
about his prospects for the coming season. But when the dust settled, it
appeared that the AYM had assembled a strong squad. Pippin especially likes
the deep rotation - a group that will be even better if Doug's beloved "El
Duque" displaces Jon Lieber in New York. Pippin also likes the AYM's
collection of solid blue-collar offensive players (Matsui, Guillen, Koskie,
Gerut, etc.). One problem, though. The AYM are slower than Kerber in the
rotation draft. To make a real run, therefore, Doug will have to actually
consummate some of those trades that he regularly proposes on his cellphone.
Pippin's final take? In the money, but no crown.

4. KLEIN NINE

Had Pippin issued projections immediately after the draft, she would have
picked the Nine to win. But within a week, the bad news began to pile up.
First, it was Wickman's elbow. Next, it was Ramon Ortiz's apparent
banishment to the Anaheim bullpen. And then it was the painful reality of
having Scott Schoenweiss in the starting rotation. The cold, hard truth is
that the Nine won't take the crown this season. Nonetheless, Pippin knows
that Nine ownership hates finishing out of the money two years in a row.
With that in mind, look for the Nine and its potent offense to push its way
into fourth place by season's end.

5. BLOCK'S BOMBERS

A pre-season trade? A draft day gamble on an injured Gary Sheffield? Maybe
Giselle is finally pulling the Bomber strings! Uncharacteristic maneuvers
aside, Pippin sees this year's Blocker team as nothing better than middling.
The major problem, of course, is the Bomber's abysmal pitching staff.
There's way too much money invested in crappy starters (Ponson for $17,
Lohse for $12, and Rodrigo Lopez - again! - for $7). And, while locking up
all of Tampa's saves is nice, it's not exactly a recipe for eleven sure
points. A wheeler-dealer might be able to make something of this team. But
we're still dealing with Blocker here, which makes fifth place the logical
prediction. 

6. FLAMING BRATS

After years of cellar dwelling, last year's Brat squad seemed poised to make
a title run. So what did John n' Jeff do? They employed a wimpy "play for
fourth" strategy and hoarded marginal keepers like Toby Hall, Adam Kennedy,
and Eric (".235") Munson. Pippin doesn't see things improving for the Brats
this year. The Brats spent too much money on risky pitchers (Rodney,
Zambrano, Batista, etc.). And their outfield of Alex Escobar, Reed Johnson,
and Laynce Nix isn't exactly murderers' row. All that aside, Pippin notes
one curiosity with the Brats' roster. When Cohen flies in from Kansas to
draft, the team always has a ton of Royals. This year, Fruit came from
Minnesota and ended up with no fewer than five Twins among the starting
twenty-three. In the future, Pippin suggests that the Brats consider
bringing a New Yorker to draft!

7. RED HOTS

Year after year, Rich trusts his draft day fortunes to artificial
intelligence. And year after year, the outcome leads real-life humans (and
canines) to scratch their heads. The computer told you to draft only three
starting pitchers in a 5X5 league?! (Sorry, we don't count Riley). The
computer told you to pay *how much* for Fullmer?! In the end, Pippin can't
help but wonder whether Winick sent a "worm" to Rich's laptop during a break
in the festivities. When one adds all of this to Rich's inability to lay off
"magic bean" prospects - even in the auction - it looks like a long year for
the not-so-mighty Red Hots.

8. CALAMARI

Early in the draft, Team Gallo bought Vlad Guerrero for a cool $39. While
everyone else congratulated the rookie franchise on buying its first player,
Jim Barrett stared intently at his retained player list. "I kept Magglio
Ordonez," one could almost hear him think, "for FORTY DOLLARS?!" At that
moment, the season effectively ended for the Squid. That's not to say Jim
didn't gamely fight back. He went out and spent $90 on Pudge, Palmeiro,
Boone, and Kevin Brown. The problem, of course, is that these players
average 37 years of age and are likely to spend several months each on the
DL. Pippin's guess is that Jim will be among the first to play for '05. Can
anyone fit that $40 Ordonez salary under the cap? 

9. BUDDHA'S GOP

Those who hoped for a patsy to join the league were sorely disappointed when
Buddha started to draft. Although new to the USML, Buddha proved himself a
wily roto vet by immediately setting 2004 aside and drafting for future
value. In the end, Pippin thinks Buddha did a damn good job. His squad
includes undervalued closers (Cordero, Koch, Riske, and possibly German);
top-flight prospects (Rios and McPherson); and marketable players at weak
positions (Chavez at 3B and Pineiro at SP). Buddha even managed to buy Bobby
Crosby, which no doubt will be helpful if he later negotiates with Robbins.
There's no hope for the Republicans this year. But Pippin suspects that this
is a franchise to be reckoned with down the road. 

10. PROTECTIVE CUPS

Unlike Buddha, the Gallo Boys set out to buy a competitive team. It's not
that they did anything especially dumb. It's just that they stood almost no
chance in a league where most rosters were stocked with undervalue. In the
end, it's likely that the Cups will have to entertain dump offers. With that
in mind, Pippin is starting a pool for the date on which Winick makes his
first offer of a useless prospect for Nomar or Vlad. It's even money that
the winning pick will be before Tax Day!

11. NUKES

Ten years ago, Pippin's Projections stated: "Pippin the Dog has trouble
understanding what Kerber did on draft day. Then again, most people have
trouble understanding what Kerber does on any given day." A full decade
later, this statement rings truer than ever. Most pre-draft observers felt
that the Nukes were well positioned to take on the front-running Berliners.
After the draft, however, these same observers could only shake their heads
at Kerber's roster. The Nukes' pitching might be OK. ("Might" being the
operative word, given that the rotation includes the likes of Kim, Leiber,
and Garcia). But the offense is a disaster. The Nukes will finish near the
bottom of the standings in HR, RBI, and runs. And if Sanchez hits poorly and
loses his job in Detroit, they will tank in steals as well. Pippin can't
imagine Kerber sitting still once he sees the writing on the wall. Instead,
she's looking for a massive midseason dump and yet another rebuilding
effort. 

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