[USML Announce] Nukes

[jhwinick at aol.com]

Mr. Kerber,
 
You are, of course, correct that no one (other than Brad) knows my true opinions.  However, I might advise a little caution before getting too excited about Laynce Nix.  Never lose sight of the fact that concepts like "breakout", "improve" and "collapse" are all relative terms.  Its not hard to breakout or improve from the lousy numbers Nix has put up to date.  And when you're already a huge disappointment, its hard to collapse.  All you really need to know about Mr. Nix is summarized in the "Comparables" that Baseball Prospectus lists:  Jerry Lynch, Todd Dunwoody, Steve Whitaker.  What can I say, other than, in the words of our own PT:  this is not a monster talent.
 
P.S.  I'd be happy to take you through a master class version of my assessment if you'd like.  It would start with pointing out that PECOTA predicts an OBP of .315.  Not much potential here.
 
That is all.  Class dismissed.
 
Jeff 
 
-----Original Message-----
From: SpringKerb at aol.com
To: announce at usml.net
Sent: Sun, 2 Apr 2006 12:22:01 EDT
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Nukes


In a message dated 4/2/2006 10:58:21 A.M. Central Daylight Time, jhwinick at aol.com writes:
I completely agree with Doug's assessment of Nix.  He'll only play until Matthews gets healthy, which should be soon.  Since Matthews is hurt, it was still a pretty shrewd pick.   But buyer beware if Kerber is pitching this guy in a trade - he still sucks.
 
Dearest Prof. Winick:
 
You're entitled to your opinion--although we'll never know what it really is, of course.  As for me, I'll just check the PECOTA on Mr. Nix and note that he's given a 59% chance of improvement and a 41% chance of a breakout, with projected numbers of .265-10-40-40-3 in 285 at-bats--all assigned when the Texas outfield picture was a bit more cluttered.  By way of comparison, Kubel is given a 27% chance to improve over last year and a 9% chance of a breakout, with numbers of .285-5-21-20-2 in 185 at-bats.  For a buck, I like my chances.
 
Your humble student, 
 
Mark
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