[USML Announce] Fwd: Jason Grey: Minor League Report: Billy Butler, The Hit Machine

[Brad Jansen]

Dear Andy:
  Perhaps the attached report will assist your efforts in crafting an
appropriate essay on Mr. Butler, Riptorn franchise cornerstone...

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Baseball Hot Sheet <baseballhotsheet at rototimes.com>
Date: Jun 5, 2006 2:30 PM
Subject: Jason Grey: Minor League Report
To: bljansen at gmail.com


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The Fantasy Hot Sheet presented by The Roto Times
Minor League Report
June 5, 2006
*By Jason Grey*

A quick note: I'll have complete post-draft coverage, including my favorites
for most immediate fantasy impact and favorites overall, on Wednesday.

With a new regime set to debut in Kansas City following the draft, and with
a new GM that comes from a Braves organization that is not shy about
accelerating top prospects from the lower minors to the majors -- from
Andruw Jones all the way through Jeff Francouer and Brian McCann -- I
thought it appropriate to check in on the Royals' second-best prospect (I
covered Alex Gordon earlier) Billy Butler.

*BILLY BUTLER, DH, ROYALS*

Some scouts believed the Royals reached a bit when they selected Butler with
the 14-overall pick in the 2004 draft after he agreed to a below-market
value deal. The Sporting News chose Butler over Brandon Wood and Delmon
Young as its Minor League Player of the Year in 2005, so we can probably put
that opinion to rest.

Butler has drawn comparisons to current Royal Mike Sweeney from the time he
was drafted, and he has done nothing to dispel those notions, and in fact
his ceiling is higher than Sweeney's. His unorthodox stance --he stands very
open with his feet spread out wide-- turned off many scouts, but it winds up
producing a balanced and level swing that generates natural home-run power
and drives balls to the gaps. He is still growing into his tremendous raw
power and doesn't need to extend his arms to generate light-tower shots, but
you can bust out the tape measure when he does.

Butler will punish mistake pitches and hits breaking balls well. He has a
small hole in his swing inside, but if you don't nail the exact spot, he'll
hurt you, as a miss puts it right in his wheelhouse. His bat speed can only
be described as explosive. He had some minor questions about his maturity
level early in his career, but those concerns have abated at this point.

Defensively, we're talking a whole different story. Butler was kind of a
mess as a third baseman, with poor footwork and very limited range. In fact,
his fielding percentage his first year as a pro was .842. His arm is very
strong, but wild. The Royals switched Butler to left field to see if he
adapts better there, but he may wind up being a first baseman, at best. To
put it bluntly, some scouts have called Butler the worst outfielder they
have seen, period. His footwork is not fluid, and he just looks extremely
awkward out there. It seems clear at this point in his development that his
best position is the batter's box. "The biggest improvement I need to make
is a defensive player," Butler said. "It's just as important as swinging the
bat well. The organization hasn't indicated anything to me yet other than
they want me to concentrate on learning left field."

Butler's great pro stats need to be taken in the proper context, as he has
played at three excellent hitters parks, but there is no mistaking his
natural talent. He was hitting in a dream hitters park at High Desert last
season, but was able to produce just as well on the road. He skipped Low-A
ball in his development without missing a beat in 2005, and he is putting up
.297/.360/.457 at Double-A this year, showing that even at age 20, he's not
overmatched there. He's a bona fide middle-of-the-order power hitter that
may be only a season or two away in an organization starved for hitting
talent. He should be one of the top power hitters in baseball in years to
come. He could be a Sweeney-type player, but he also has the potential to
draw comparisons to Travis Hafner.

*CHARLTON JIMERSON, OF, ASTROS*

We've all heard of the proverbial "tools" players that get scouts all in a
tizzy but leave the performance analysts underwhelmed. Reggie Abercrombie,
we're looking at you. This year, one of the most spectacular tools players I
have seen in recent years seems to be developing some baseball skills to go
with them.

Or is he really?

Two years ago, at the Arizona Fall League, I wrote the following about
Jimerson: "He came to baseball late and is a huge project. He has as many
tools as anyone in the minors, but the problem is that he has yet to
actually hit at all as a pro. His pitch recognition is sub-par and his
at-bats often end with him flailing at the plate. His numbers speak
volumes."

Looking back a couple of years later, I exaggerated a little bit, because he
can hit a little, but his batting averages and strikeout numbers have spoken
very loudly and they say he's not a major league hitter. He repeated
Double-A in the Texas League in 2005, and for the most part, the performance
was the same -- not a good sign for a player who turned 26 late in the
season.

However, Jimerson has gotten some buzz at Triple-A Round Rock this year, and
there is talk he might find a place in the Astros outfield at some point
later this year if they need some help. Jimerson was hitting over .300 as
recently as this past weekend, with a .555 slugging percentage, 32
extra-base hits and going 15-for-18 in steals. More on his 2006 numbers in a
moment.

You really want to root for Jimerson because of how much he has overcome in
his life -he was abandoned by his mother who was a crack addict. He attended
Miami on an *academic* scholarship and left with a degree in computer
science -- not even starting for the baseball team until his senior year,
when he almost carried the team to a national title all by himself.

He sure does look fantastic in a baseball uniform and on the field, so you
can see why the scouts drool. You can just picture the copious amounts of
homers and stolen bases he could provide...if it weren't for one thing.

The 86/8 K/BB ratio in 220 at-bats. Sorry Charlton, that's not going to get
it done. He has to do a better job of making contact and picking pitches to
swing at that he can drive. He works hard, but his swing is just too long
and his pitch recognition is not good enough. His best bet is a
fifth-outfielder type with speed and defense, as one scout told me, "he
could win a Gold Glove right now." However, in that same breath he also said
Jimerson was a "great story, but I don't see him making it."

Fortunately, he seems like the kind of person that will have success in his
life regardless, even if it's not in baseball.

*DONALD KELLY, IF, TIGERS*

You guys already know a lot about the "top" prospects, but sometimes the
guys that help win fantasy leagues are the overlooked types that have to
come up and play a major role with a team mid-season and wind up getting
enough playing time to provide some good short-term benefits. Kelly is a
player that fits that profile.

In 2004, Kelly had fallen off the prospect radar after missing most of the
season with a shoulder injury. However, he returned with a vengeance at
Double-A in 2005 and was named the best batting prospect in the Eastern
League. While I disagree with that assessment, he did have a great run there
before getting a promotion to Triple-A later in the season. Kelly is a tall
(6'4") lanky shortstop that can also play second and third. He knows the
strike zone and makes excellent contact. He's kind of caught in between, in
that he has the frame to add more bulk and the power he needs in his game,
but that would probably reduce his quickness enough to really make his
fringe range a liability in the infield, as his bat won't carry him in the
outfield. He makes all the routine plays, but his lack of pop is going to
limit him severely.

"I can hit the gaps and I'm improving," said Kelly, "but I'm not going to be
a homer hitter. I do need to drive the ball a little more if I can."

Kelly is worth watching if there is a major injury in the Tigers infield, as
he does have modest speed potential. He's hitting just .251 at Triple-A but
has walked almost as much as he has struck out and has swiped 15 bags. Cheap
sources of speed are always worth putting on your radar.

Kelly profiles as a utility guy at best, simply because his power isn't
enough to compensate for his defensive shortcomings. He could hit for
average, but it would be an empty one, and there are a lot of other
infielders that can hit for an empty average with much better defense.
Still, if it looks like he'll get some playing time, he is a David
Eckstein-type of player that has some marginal value.
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