[USML Announce] DUMP Special Report: How Have They Done?? Part I - Brad the Bedraggled

jhwinick at aol.com jhwinick at aol.com
Tue Jun 20 23:47:16 EDT 2006


Dump Special Report #1
 
Winick, Brad Lee, PT/KR and Gammons have all aimed their sights at strong campaigns in 2007.  Having collectively dumped most of their 2006 talent, it?s a reasonable question to ask how they?ve done.  DUMP will take these four teams, one at a time, and provide a preliminary answer.
 
RIPTORNS
 
Brad Lee has been dumping early and often, collecting a pool of young players dubbed by Brad Lee himself (borrowing a phrase from PT/KR) as ?monster-talents.?  Well?..maybe?..not.  Much of Brad Lee?s early efforts were focused on young, hard-throwing relievers with the potential to assume the role of closer.  Other than the one sure-thing closer prospect in Boston (and that would be Papelbon, Andy, NOT Hansen), he?s got damn near all the rest of the so-called ?closers of the future?:  Zumaya, Putz, Soriano, Cabrera.  Anything there?  The preliminary answers are:  Maybe, No, Probably and Probably Not.  ZUMAYA?s definitely got the arm, the competitive spirit, a relatively limited repertoire and a high-effort delivery that makes him best suited for the pen.  The problem is that word out of Detroit is that they still look at him as a starter.  If Jones and Rodney continue to struggle, they may not have a choice.  And if given the opportunity, DUMP says he runs with it.  PUTZ, on the other hand, is aptly named.  A hard thrower with no real out pitch and shaky control, this guy isn?t going to get it done in the long run and most likely doesn?t hold his late inning role through the end of 2006.  DUMP expects that Brad Lee suspects as much and anticipates him being marketed soon (if he isn?t already).  The good news is that there?s a guy in Seattle that has everything that Putz lacks and he, too, is a Riptorn.  SORIANO is the real deal.  Great fastball, a couple of above average complimentary pitches, growing control and confidence and no one ahead of him that is likely to hold the job.  DUMP is very high on Soriano.  CABRERA was one of the two MUST HAVE guys targeted by Brad Lee.  DUMP believes that Brad Lee missed the mark on this one.  Cabrera does have an outstanding fastball, but he seems to lack the guile required to be a top notch closer in the majors.  This is a guy that appears to be unwilling to rear back and go after guys in the clutch.  He nibbles around the corners when he should be coming right at a guy.  He could turn it around and he does have a great arm.  But DUMP says Robbins taught the master a trick or two on this dump deal.  Fear not, though, Brad Lee.  DUMP strongly suspects that you?ll have little trouble sending him back from where he came in due time.
 
To Brad Lee?s credit, he went out and got some highly touted hitters as well.  Let?s take a look:  GORDON ? the real deal, albeit one who is destined to hit in the middle of an anemic KC lineup.  He?s already off to a nice start with the following production in AA - .305 average, 46 runs, 9 home runs, 30 rbi?s and 14 stolen bases, with a .408 on base percentage.  Those are GREAT numbers.  DUMP says the power will grow, the speed will diminish and the average and OBP will remain fairly constant.  This guy will be a star.  The only question is how soon.  Best guess is that this the key piece to Brad Lee?s first big dump trade next year.  Current odds are 2-1 that he?s packaged with Cabrera and sent to the Red Hots.  BUTLER ? a great hitter who will be joining Gordon in KC shortly.  The only downside is he?s got future DH written all over him.  The hope is that he?s good enough to hold down the first base job.  If so, DUMP says he?s a one of the top 10 AL minor league prospects.  Look at these minor league (AA) numbers: .318 average, 47 runs, 10 home runs, 48 rbis and a .381 on base percentage.  Those are the really exciting prospects, but there are a few others that are worthy of attention:  KENDRICK is a hitting machine?.well, at least in the minor leagues.  He couldn?t hit a lick during his cup of coffee, but DUMP says he will when he gets his next chance.  Look at these minor league numbers:  .396 average, 47 runs, 9 home runs, 48 rbis and 8 stolen bases with a on base percentage of .435!!  The problem is that he?s already in year one of his contract and may be a full year away from a full time job.  Nevertheless, DUMP says he?s another top 10 AL minor league prospect and a guy Brad will be more than happy to burn $1 on draft day for even if he?ll likely only be buying half a season.  MORALES is an excellent hitter (then again, he may be 5 years older than his listed age of 23).  But he?s a legitimate hitting prospect.  He?s in the second year of his contract and that?s a serious negative, but the bottom line is that DUMP likes MORALES and sees serious potential for a 20+ home run, 90+ rbi producer with a .270+ average.  That?s a nice guy to build around.
 
After that, there?s nothing terribly exciting:  DUKES has put up the following minor league numbers:  (AAA) .295 average, 45 runs, 8 home runs, 41 rbi?s and 3 stolen bases with a .398 on base percentage.  Those are damned fine numbers, but a guy who gets in fistfights with his teammates spells trouble.  CLEMENT?s been injured, but in limited at bats he?s done the following ? (AA)  .288 average, 7 runs, 2 home runs and 10 rbis with a .386 on base percentage.  The fact that he?s a reasonably strong catcher doesn?t hurt his prospects, but he?s a good rather than great hitter and the last time DUMP checked, there were no points awarded for defense.  DUMP says Clement isn?t a potential star, but is still the epitome of the kind of guy that Brad Lee can effectively tout and is thus destined to be fodder for a future COPS bulletin.  
 
But what about Brad Lee?s draft day coup ? the next great AL middle infielder, BJ UPTON?  Bottom line - going nowhere quickly.  Putting aside his astounding 26 errors (that will certainly require a move to the outfield) and his troubles with the law (DUI arrest), he?s really not hitting as well as expected.  Here are his current minor league numbers:  .267 average, 41 runs, 5 home runs, 31 rbi?s and 29 stolen bases (12 caught stealing) and an OBP of .377.  DUMP says that Upton will, in time, be a very nice player.  But on a $14 salary and in the first year of his contract, DUMP says this player goes back into the pool.  
 
There are a couple of other prospects on the roster, but nothing worth more than quick mention.  HUBER ? lousy numbers and lousy defense makes for a lousy prospect.  Here are the numbers:  (AAA) .253 average 21 runs, 9 home runs, 18 rbi?s and 2 stolen bases with a paltry .338 on base percentage.  DUMP says there?s nothing here and suspects that the Royals agree.  KOTCHMAN ? lots to be worried about with Casey.  First problem is opportunity ? the Angels have far too many good prospects competing for but a few positions.  Were he not in the second year of his contract, he?d be potentially intriguing.  But the mononucleosis will cost him much of 2006 and its hard to see Brad Lee burning a roster spot with this guy.  DUMP says this guy is a stud that will someday soon be a legitimate major league player.  But the prediction here is that someone will get lucky by picking him up in next year?s draft, since there isn?t going to be room on the Riptorn keeper list.  Getting nothing better than this guy for Corey Patterson?s production looks like the single worst trade of 2006, so far.  However, once again, Brad Lee has managed to cover his backside nicely by picking up the fellow that seems to be taking advantage of the opening created by Kotchman?s illness (See MORALES discussion above).  
 
On top of all of these minor league players, Brad Lee has a solid $5 keeper in Benji Molina (albeit with a 50/50 shot of ending up in the NL) and a rock solid $26 Jim Thome (albeit with the potential to grab his back in agony at any moment).
 
DUMP says it all adds up to a potential return to form for the RIPTORNS in 2007.  Soriano and Zumaya give him plenty of saves and Gordon, Butler, Kendrick and Morales are some excellent hitters to build around (or to dump).  There?s enough here for Brad Lee to work his magic in 2007.  Beware!!!
 
DUMP grades the RIPTORNS effort out at B+. 
 
BOMBERS up next?.
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