[USML Announce] DUMP LIVE UPDATE - King Felix vs. Francisco Liriano

[JHWinick at aol.com]

Given that one of the esteemed members of DUMP once briefly considered  
including Francisco Liriano in a dump deal to acquire King Felix (okay, I'm  not 
esteemed from any viewpoint other than my own), DUMP figured it was time to  
compare the two lads.
 
King Felix is young, is healthy and put up some truly remarkable numbers  
down the stretch in 2005:   4-4    2.67  ERA    84.1 IP    61  H    23 BB    1.00 
 WHIP    5 HR    77 K.  He is  without doubt at the top of nearly all 
prospect lists maintained by the  mainstream touts.  From an Uncle Sidley's Major 
League prospective, he's $5  on the second year of his contract.
 
Undoubtedly a nice keeper, but how nice?  For starters (pun intended)  he is 
a young, still relatively unproven pitcher that will likely be signed  to a 
guaranteed contract of no less than $10.  That makes him risky  business.  More 
importantly, he's looking a lot less regal these  days.
 
Here are his 2006 numbers:
 
7-7    5.10 ERA    90  IP    100 Hits    28  BB    1.42 WHIP    14  HR    88 K
 
The performances have been relatively consistent.  He looks pretty  good on 
the mound (if a tad disinterested), but giving up too many hits, too  many home 
runs and throwing too many pitches too early in the game.  At  least in 2006, 
despite the 88 K's, he's not helping his rotisserie team.
 
But how about Francisco Liriano?  He too is young and healthy, but  doesn't 
have a track record in the major leagues.  On the other hand, he is  putting up 
truly remarkable numbers in his first real taste of the show.   From an Uncle 
Sidley's Major League perspective, he's $19 (due to PT/KR's  irrational 
exuberance and my stubbornness), but is in the first year of his  contract.
 
Here are his 2006 numbers:
 
7-1    2.17 ERA    66.1  IP    51 Hits    19  BB    1.06 WHIP    3  HR    74 K
 
Nothing not to like about those numbers.  In fact, if he had only 3.2  more 
innings pitched, he'd be leading his teammate Santana as the American  League 
ERA leader.  Interestingly enough, they compare very favorably to  King Felix' 
2005 numbers.  At $19, he's no bargain (yet), but there's also  no risk.  
Worst case scenario is that he under-produces as a 2nd year  player and then finds 
his way back into the pool for the following year.   If he keeps up the good 
work, he's a bargain.
 
DUMP says "Ding Dong the King is Dead...."  "Long Live the New King,  King 
Francisco!!"
 
That is all.
 
Jeffrey Winick
DUMP
 
 
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