[USML Announce] DUMP LIVE UPDATE - King Felix vs. Francisco Liriano

[springkerb at aol.com]

How about a report on Crede?  It's killing me that I gave him up, even though I really needed Millwood.  I'm thinking the precipitous drop in Crede's K's says that the breakout is real and you can pretty much mark him down for .300-30-100 or something in that range.
 
Mark 
 
-----Original Message-----
From: JHWinick at aol.com
To: announce at usml.net
Sent: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 15:24:18 EDT
Subject: [USML Announce] DUMP LIVE UPDATE - King Felix vs. Francisco Liriano


Given that one of the esteemed members of DUMP once briefly considered including Francisco Liriano in a dump deal to acquire King Felix (okay, I'm not esteemed from any viewpoint other than my own), DUMP figured it was time to compare the two lads.
 
King Felix is young, is healthy and put up some truly remarkable numbers down the stretch in 2005:   4-4    2.67 ERA    84.1 IP    61 H    23 BB    1.00 WHIP    5 HR    77 K.  He is without doubt at the top of nearly all prospect lists maintained by the mainstream touts.  From an Uncle Sidley's Major League prospective, he's $5 on the second year of his contract.
 
Undoubtedly a nice keeper, but how nice?  For starters (pun intended) he is a young, still relatively unproven pitcher that will likely be signed to a guaranteed contract of no less than $10.  That makes him risky business.  More importantly, he's looking a lot less regal these days.
 
Here are his 2006 numbers:
 
7-7    5.10 ERA    90 IP    100 Hits    28 BB    1.42 WHIP    14 HR    88 K
 
The performances have been relatively consistent.  He looks pretty good on the mound (if a tad disinterested), but giving up too many hits, too many home runs and throwing too many pitches too early in the game.  At least in 2006, despite the 88 K's, he's not helping his rotisserie team.
 
But how about Francisco Liriano?  He too is young and healthy, but doesn't have a track record in the major leagues.  On the other hand, he is putting up truly remarkable numbers in his first real taste of the show.  >From an Uncle Sidley's Major League perspective, he's $19 (due to PT/KR's irrational exuberance and my stubbornness), but is in the first year of his contract.
 
Here are his 2006 numbers:
 
7-1    2.17 ERA    66.1 IP    51 Hits    19 BB    1.06 WHIP    3 HR    74 K
 
Nothing not to like about those numbers.  In fact, if he had only 3.2 more innings pitched, he'd be leading his teammate Santana as the American League ERA leader.  Interestingly enough, they compare very favorably to King Felix' 2005 numbers.  At $19, he's no bargain (yet), but there's also no risk.  Worst case scenario is that he under-produces as a 2nd year player and then finds his way back into the pool for the following year.  If he keeps up the good work, he's a bargain.
 
DUMP says "Ding Dong the King is Dead...."  "Long Live the New King, King Francisco!!"
 
That is all.
 
Jeffrey Winick
DUMP
 
 
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