[USML Announce] DUMP DUMPING REPORT #2 - The Bombers

Thu Jun 29 13:45:32 EDT 2006

and don't get me started about Grady Sizemore (although thanks to Mark B it looks like I'll get to continue to enjoy Grady for some time)
-----Original Message-----
From: Andy Klein <anrklein at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 29 Jun 2006 11:35:23 
To:USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] DUMP DUMPING REPORT #2 - The Bombers

One bit of reality-check:? According to TQStats, Swisher is hitting .223 over 103 AB since joining the Bombers.? That's why Doug (or is it Brad?!) was a roto master to deal Nick?-- for Ichiro, no less --?when he was hitting so clearly over his head. 
? 
Peralta is currently one of the AL's hottest hitters.? And at an admittedly still-mediocre?.253 overall, he's?already?at Nick Swisher's career average!?? 
? 
-Andy

----- Original Message ----
From: JHWinick at aol.com
To: announce at usml.net
Sent: Thursday, June 29, 2006 12:06:51 PM
Subject: [USML Announce] DUMP DUMPING REPORT #2 - The Bombers

With the unbelievable response to DUMP?s review of Brad Lee?s rebuilding efforts, there was really no alternative but to continue with the program of reviewing each of the dumping team?s efforts so far.? Next up is PT/KR.? 

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2006 marked a bit of a departure for PT/KR as he is usually loathe to concede defeat until much later in the season.? And this may be the first time in as long as this author can recall that PT/KR has forgone a hard fought campaign for that cherished first pick in the rotation draft.

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All of this, of course, begs the question ? ?Was it worth it??? Well, lets?take a closer look.

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The centerpiece of the Bomber rebuilding effort is Nick SWISHER.? Though angrily chastised by Andy Klein for passing on the downright moribund Jhonny Peralta (.253 BA, 7HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB), DUMP proclaims that PT/KR made the right choice.? He?s currently batting .286, 19 HR, 49 RBI and 1 SB that is supported by an OBP of .402.? These are elite numbers that all mark continued growth on the path to a long All-Star career.? DUMP expects Mr. Swisher to spend a long and productive career with the Bombers.

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In the very same trade PT/KR was also able to pick up a solid infielder in Jorge CANTU.? Jorge?s a very nice player and at $10 will be a nice keeper for the Bombers, but there is some reason for caution here.? Jorge has only walked 37 times??IN HIS CAREER!!? Sure he?s young and sure he had a great season last year.? But DUMP says this guy is walking a very fine line (pun intended).? This one may not turn out so well.? DUMP would advise serious caution when determining the length of this guy?s contract extension.

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Jason GIAMBI is having a fairly nice season and at $12 is certainly worth keeping.? But do you really think that he?s clean?? DUMP doesn?t.? And DUMP sees some major names facing the fire when the Grimsley affidavit is released.? Don?t be too surprised if this guy is one of them.? DUMP says its hard to get too excited about anything here.

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Juan RIVERA was a popular off-season choice among the touts for a break-out season.? Hasn?t happened and now looks increasingly unlikely to happen.? On an $8 contract, DUMP says this guy should go back into the pool.

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Yunieski BETANCOURT?? At $6?? Need we say more?? Didn?t think so.

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And gentlemen, that?s it on the offense side. ?I can hear you all murmering ?Surely there must be more?.? If only it were so.? Those are the highlights.? From here on out, it starts getting pretty ugly.

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Not only has Cliff LEE been bad, but he?s doing it on a guaranteed $12 long-term contract.? 97.2 innings pitched and a 4.61 ERA and that?s the good news.? Over the last ten outings, Mr. Lee has put up a 5.34 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and a meager 37 K?s.? DUMP says Mark should wait until the moment that Lee puts up two consecutive decent starts and then drop him on any victim who will bite.

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But what about Nate ROBERTSON?? You?re right, this guy actually looks pretty good.?? PT/KR is sure to point out that he?s 8-3 with a 3.14 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP.? Yep, he sure does look good for a $1 pitcher.? But this is likely a case where looks can be deceiving.? Nate?s career numbers are a little less impressive.? Over a better than 5 year career, Nate has a 4.58 ERA (including 2006) and a 1.41 WHIP (also including 2006).? 70 K?s in 100 innings?? Well, he?s not overpowering the hitters.? 11 home runs given up, so he hasn?t quite mastered the long ball yet.? DUMP says he?s improved a bit while his team appears to have improved a lot.? DUMP says there?s a solid $5-7 pitcher here.? Nothing more, however.

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DUMP likes Mike MacDOUGAL.? But at $10 in year two, coming off of a serious injury, with still shaky control and playing for a lousy team, DUMP says this guy probably belongs back in the pool next year.? 

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The final pitcher worth mention is Brandon McCARTHY.? Brandon is young, he?s talented and he?s playing for a great team.? DUMP says there?s a lot to like here.? He closed 2005 in terrific fashion and is doing a solid, if unspectacular job out of the pen.? If he gets a shot in the rotation before the end of the season, he could establish himself as a nice $5 pitcher next season.? If he languishes in the bullpen all season, DUMP says to let him go and try again next year since he?s not likely to go for more than $5.

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The minor leaguers are nothing short of a wasteland.? The best of the lot is probably Tony GIARRANTANO.? He?s got a nice $2 salary, plays a valuable position (SS) and should have opportunity to make the big club relatively soon.? But he?s hardly tearing up AA (.267 BA, 29 runs, 0 home runs, 19 rbi and 14 stolen bases with a .328 OBP that won?t support the leadoff position to which he is best suited).? DUMP says this isn?t much of a prospect.? John MAYBERRY is struggling mightily at Low A (that?s right ? LOW A).? He?s currently batting .226, with 29 runs, 8 home runs, 27 rbis and 1 stolen base.? He?s got the talent, but not the skills.? With time he may turn into a decent prospect, but he sure isn?t there yet.? Wilkin RAMIREZ is also struggling, albeit at least he?s doing so in High A.? He?s off to a .213 start with 27 runs, 6 home runs, 30 rbi and 8 stolen bases with an awe inspiring (and not in a good way) .248 OBP.? Wilkin truly doesn?t know the difference between a ball and a strike (69k in 248 at bats).? Unless or until he figures that out, he?s going nowhere quickly.? But how about Dernard SPAN?? Anyone who?s talked trade with PT/KR this year has certainly heard about him.? He?s the next guy that PT/KR will be trotting out as a ?monster-talent?.? DUMP says this guy is no better than a 4th outfielder and that?s only with a fair amount of improvement.? He?s presently tearing things up (NOT) in AA to the tune of .276 BA, 34 runs, 1 home run, 17 rbi and 11 stolen bases with a .324 OBP.? This is a guy with absolutely no power and not nearly enough speed to justify an outfield position in the absence of power.?? Nothing here, despite protestations to the contrary from PT/KR.? There are two pitchers worth mention, but barely.? Cliff NAGEOTTE is a Bomber favorite that seems like he?s been around forever.? He?s struggling in AA with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.? NEXT.? DUMP thinks Edinson VOLQUEZ is going to be a very fine pitcher some day.? This guy has been throwing nothing but smoke since he added the ?n? to his first name.? Unfortunately, he?s $10 and in the first year of his contract and is still pitching in the minor leagues, so the ever conservative PT/KR isn?t going to retain this guy.? DUMP expects to see him in the pool at next year?s draft.

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And that?s it!!!

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So, what have you got?? You?ve got a few decent offensive players, little returning pitching and no prospects worth note.? DUMP says the effort so far is worthy of no better than a C-.? There?s clearly more work that needs to be done here, even if only to put this team back in line for another Drive for Five.

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That is all.

?

Jeffrey Winick
DUMP 
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