[USML Announce] Ron and Me

Tue Aug 24 20:33:37 EDT 2010

  Did you not have Martin Perez to trade him for Konerko in that league??

-Andy

On 8/24/10 5:45 PM, Jeffrey Winick wrote:
>
>
>   Ron Shandler's Fanalytics
>
>
>         August 20, 2010
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>   O' No!
>
> It all started a little over a year ago.
> I was in rebuilding mode in the eXperts Fantasy League (XFL 
> <http://www.fantasyxperts.com/>) and pulled off the following deal 
> with Lawr Michaels:
>
>     /I sent him Lance Berkman. He sent me Chase Headley, Chris Tillman
>     and Travis Hafner./
>
> Hafner was a throwaway, but the other two were both potential keepers 
> for 2010. Headley was a top-rated prospect who had scuttled about 
> getting his feet wet in the majors for a season and a half. Tillman 
> was amidst a minor league season in which he'd post a 2.75 ERA with a 
> 3.8 Cmd ratio and an MLE BPV of 117.
> Tillman struggled upon his promotion to Baltimore the following month, 
> going 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA and meager 1.6 Cmd ratio. But he was only 
> 21. Still a keeper.
> The annual XFL auction takes place at First Pitch Arizona 
> <http://www.baseballhq.com/seminars/arizona.shtml> each November. I 
> went into last year's draft with what I thought was a solid protection 
> list, led by Jason Heyward, Austin Jackson and Brett Anderson (And 
> Headley. And Tillman.). All I needed to do was have a decent draft.
> A $34 Carlos Beltran is about all you need to know about how 2010 has 
> gone. So we've gone back to rebuilding, year #2.
> On June 7, I made the following deal with Todd Zola:
>
>     /I sent him Joakim Soria. He sent me Brian Matusz./
>
> Now, Matusz was not having the best of years. He scraped through April 
> with a 4.40 ERA, then saw his once stellar BPV plummet to 27 in May. 
> But this was a highly-touted prospect who was coming off a minor 
> league season where he went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 3.8 Cmd ratio. 
> His 4.63 ERA in 2009's MLB debut was backed by a solid 2.7 Cmd and 71 
> BPV. I momentarily considered the implications of rostering two 
> Orioles pitching prospects... but only momentarily.
> As I continued to sink in the standings (and wasn't Matusz's July a 
> hoot!), I put out another call to the top contenders in the league to 
> try to unload some of my valuable, but unprotectable players.
> Battling for first place, Jeff Winick was interested in my Paul 
> Konerko. He wrote me: "It's probably easier for me to trade a March 
> pick rather than someone presently contributing, but I'll do anything 
> that makes my team better."
> If I was smart, I would have heeded that comment, if for no other 
> reason than to protect me from myself. But Jeff had one player who was 
> simply too intriguing to resist.
> Jake Arrieta.
> Before I would commit this act of insanity, I sent off an email to our 
> minor league expert, Rob Gordon. I wrote: "I already own Chris Tillman 
> and Brian Matusz in a keeper league. I have an opportunity to add Jake 
> Arrieta at a low cost. Would this be the epitome of masochism or does 
> this trio have a real chance of becoming as productive as their 
> advanced hype would indicate? Should I roll the dice with the two O's 
> I already have and look for something else other than a third 
> Baltimore starter?"
> You see, I was at least a little bit smart. Just a little.
> But I was also a little impatient. While I waited for Rob to respond, 
> I emailed Jeff to see if Arrieta was even available. I framed the 
> email as being "just this side of madness."
> On August 10, Rob finally responded:
> "My take is that this would be a tough call. All three have very good 
> long-term potential, but also plenty of work to do. Adding Arrieta 
> seems like a bit of a risk. That gives you three fairly volatile young 
> pitchers and Arrieta probably has the most work to do of the three. 
> Matusz is probably the furthest along the development curve, but is 
> far from a finished product. Tillman and Arrieta need to throw more 
> strikes, trust their stuff, and hit their spots. No small feat vs the 
> Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Jays. The upshot of having all three of 
> them - despite the tremendous potential - is a ton of risk."
> Ah, but Rob was just sugar-coating things. His /true/ feelings came 
> out in his next statement:
> "Are there other players you can look at - possibly a position player?"
> For me, Konerko was a useless player on a roster looking towards 2011. 
> Getting Arrieta for him would at least be /something./ I asked Rob to 
> dig deep and find anything good to say. He fed me the company line...
> "It seems to me the logical counter-argument is you'll have three 
> tremendously talented young arms and that historically one or two of 
> them will develop into a legit top-of-the-rotation guy. Having cheap 
> arms with upside allows you to spend freely on expensive hitting. 
> Since pitching is volatile anyway, why buy an expensive starter..."
> He was placating me. I needed that.
> The real problem was that this conversation occurred on August 10.
> On August 9, Jeff had already tossed me into the abyss:
>
>     /I sent him Paul Konerko. He sent me Jake Arrieta./
>
> So here I am with a trio of potentially high upside starting pitchers 
> on a terrible ballclub. But there is always good news if you look hard 
> enough for it. From the /Minor League Baseball Analyst/:
>                                   '09 MLE Performance
>              Rating  Potential    Ctl  Dom  Cmd  BPV  *Rank
>              ======  ==========   ===  ===  ===  ===  =====
> Arrieta,J     8B    #3 starter   3.5  7.4  2.1   52    26
> Matusz,B      9B    #1 starter   2.3  7.6  3.3  106     2
> Tillman,C     9C    #2 starter   2.3  8.5  3.7  117     9
>   * Rank among all pitching prospects
> In retrospect, the Arrieta acquisition now seems a bit more ill-advised.
> And, the rest of the story...
>               Major League Record                    Keeper
>               W   L   IP   ERA   Ctl  Dom  Cmd  BPV  Price
>              ==  ==  ===  ====   ===  ===  ===  ===  ======
> Arrieta,J    4   4   72  5.23   5.0  4.2  0.8  -40    $4
> Matusz,B     9  14  174  5.11   3.4  7.1  2.1   49    $7
> Tillman,C    3   9   90  6.10   3.7  5.1  1.4    8    $7
> Heck, if a Major League ballclub is content to bank their future on 
> the potential of this trio, why shouldn't I feel likewise? Yes, the 
> easy answer is "because it's the Orioles." But there is clearly some 
> upside here.
> And I can't forget these illustrious pitching lines:
>               W   L   IP   ERA
>              ==  ==  ===  ====
> Pitcher A    3   7   81  5.09
> Pitcher B    2   3   86  6.49
> Pitcher C    6  14  155  5.61
> Pitcher D    2   7   64  5.48
> Who owned these horrible stats? These were the rookie seasons of (in 
> order) Chris Carpenter, Johan Santana, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz.
> There is hope yet.
> Maybe.
>
>
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