[USML Announce] Picks and Pans

[springkerb at aol.com]

Also, the sample size is pretty small, and pitching is notoriously unpredictable.  I think we can concede that there was a year when Jeff was arguably right more often that he was wrong.  That's not as good as Tom Skilling, but what the heck.

Mark



-----Original Message-----
From: Jeffrey Winick <jhwinick at aol.com>
To: announce <announce at usml.net>
Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 7:21 pm
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans


A fair point.  But I think if you read the commentary, it makes it easier to determine whether the Pick/Pan was correct.  For example, Verlander and Cano were picks that were identified as safe bets to put up similar if not better numbers than the prior year.  Those are correct assessments since they did exactly what I predicted they'd do.  Most of time I identified not only that they were a pick or a pan, but I predicted what their performance would be.  My scorecard is based on a comparison of the descriptions as much as the tagline of Pick/Pan. 


Jeff



-----Original Message-----
From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker at Sidley.com>
To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 6:42 pm
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans




Jeff:  I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results.  The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct.  For example, if you label someone as a “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick “correct”?  I took “pick” to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite.  Otherwise, where is the real expertise?  Thoughts?
 
In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit!
 
  -- Mark B.
 

From: announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] On Behalf Of Jeffrey Winick
Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM
To: announce at usml.net
Subject: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans

 
Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is. 

 

Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it.  Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting.  There were some real clunkers last year:  (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well:  (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman).

 

Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%).  Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).

 

Here's the full list:

 

Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT

Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT

Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT

Brandon Belt – PAN – CORRECT

Ryan Braun – PICK – CORRECT

Jay Bruce – PICK - CORRECT

Billy Butler – PICK – CORRECT

Miguel Cabrera – PICK – CORRECT

Robinson Cano – PICK – CORRECT

Carl Crawford – PICK – INCORRECT

Ryan Doumit – PICK – CORRECT

Adam Dunn – PAN – INCORRECT

Jacoby Ellsbury – PAN – CORRECT

David Freese – PAN – INCORRECT

Curtis Granderson – PAN – INCORRECT

Eric Hosmer – PICK – INCORRECT

Derek Jeter – PAN – INCORRECT

Jesus Montero – PICK – INCORRECT

Justin Morneau – PICK – CORRECT

Martin Prado – PICK – CORRECT

Jayson Werth – PAN – CORRECT

Matt Wieters – PICK – CORRECT

 

Heath Bell – PAN – CORRECT

Yu Darvish – PAN – INCORRECT

RA Dickey – PICK – CORRECT

Cole Hamels – PICK – CORRECT

Tommy Hanson – PAN – CORRECT

Kenley Jansen – PICK – CORRECT

Ubaldo Jimenez – PAN – CORRECT

Mat Latos – PICK – CORRECT

Matt Moore – PICK - CORRECT

Bud Norris – PICK – INCORRECT

Michael Pineda – PICK – INCORRECT

David Robertson – PICK – INCORRECT

Chris Sale – PICK – CORRECT

Sergio Santos – PICK – INCORRECT

Max Scherzer – PICK – CORRECT

Huston Street – PICK – CORRECT

Justin Verlander – PICK – CORRECT

Jordan Walden – PAN – CORRECT

Jordan Zimmerman – PICK - CORRECT

 

Jeff



 
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