[USML Announce] Picks and Pans

[Richard Robbins]

Skilling?  Nah. I'm partial to CBS meteorologist and former Indianapolis
Colt cheerleader Megan Glaros.  We are talking about fantasy picks, right?

On Tuesday, February 19, 2013, wrote:

> Also, the sample size is pretty small, and pitching is notoriously
> unpredictable.  I think we can concede that there was a year when Jeff was
> arguably right more often that he was wrong.  That's not as good as Tom
> Skilling, but what the heck.
>
> Mark
>
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From: Jeffrey Winick <jhwinick at aol.com>
> To: announce <announce at usml.net>
> Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 7:21 pm
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
>
> A fair point.  But I think if you read the commentary, it makes it easier
> to determine whether the Pick/Pan was correct.  For example, Verlander and
> Cano were picks that were identified as safe bets to put up similar if not
> better numbers than the prior year.  Those are correct assessments since
> they did exactly what I predicted they'd do.  Most of time I identified not
> only that they were a pick or a pan, but I predicted what their performance
> would be.  My scorecard is based on a comparison of the descriptions as
> much as the tagline of Pick/Pan.
>
>  Jeff
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker at Sidley.com>
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 6:42 pm
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
>
>   Jeff:  I actually went through this exercise last year, but never
> published the results.  The question I struggled with is how to assess
> whether a pick/pan was correct.  For example, if you label someone as a
> “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior
> years, is that pick “correct”?  I took “pick” to mean the player
> significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite.
> Otherwise, where is the real expertise?  Thoughts?
>
> In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are
> so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that,
> in and of itself, makes you a pundit!
>
>   -- Mark B.
>
>  *From:* announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] *On
> Behalf Of *Jeffrey Winick
> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM
> *To:* announce at usml.net
> *Subject:* [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
>
> Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks
> and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert
> really is.
>
>  Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it.  Bottom
> line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting.  There were some
> real clunkers last year:  (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and
> (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as
> well:  (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and
> Zimmerman).
>
>  Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%).  Of my 19 pitching
> Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).
>
>  Here's the full list:
>
>  Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT
>  Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT
>  Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT
>
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