[USML Announce] Picks and Pans

Jeffrey Winick jwinick at harriswinick.com
Thu Feb 21 11:16:16 EST 2013


"peddle to Brad for a first-rate position player"

Finally some acknowledgment of the Myers trade.  Or is this a reference to the Trout trade?  Or the Montero trade?  ;-)

What time are we getting started on the 17th?  And who's bringing the donuts this year?

Jeff


From: announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] On Behalf Of JOHN FRUIT
Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 4:50 AM
To: announce at usml.net
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans

sounds like Jeff needs to revert to the security analyst methodology:  strong buy/buy/sell/reduce/neutral/overweight/underweight/peddle to Brad for a first-rate position player.

________________________________
To: announce at usml.net<mailto:announce at usml.net>
From: jhwinick at aol.com<mailto:jhwinick at aol.com>
Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2013 20:20:22 -0500
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans

A fair point.  But I think if you read the commentary, it makes it easier to determine whether the Pick/Pan was correct.  For example, Verlander and Cano were picks that were identified as safe bets to put up similar if not better numbers than the prior year.  Those are correct assessments since they did exactly what I predicted they'd do.  Most of time I identified not only that they were a pick or a pan, but I predicted what their performance would be.  My scorecard is based on a comparison of the descriptions as much as the tagline of Pick/Pan.

Jeff

-----Original Message-----
From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker at Sidley.com>
To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 6:42 pm
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
Jeff:  I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results.  The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct.  For example, if you label someone as a "pick," and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick "correct"?  I took "pick" to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and "pan" to meant the opposite.  Otherwise, where is the real expertise?  Thoughts?

In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit!

  -- Mark B.

From: announce-bounces at usml.net<mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net> [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net<mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net?>] On Behalf Of Jeffrey Winick
Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM
To: announce at usml.net<mailto:announce at usml.net>
Subject: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans

Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is.

Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it.  Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting.  There were some real clunkers last year:  (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well:  (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman).

Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%).  Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).

Here's the full list:

Bobby Abreu - PAN - CORRECT
Elvis Andrus - PICK - INCORRECT
Erick Aybar - PICK - INCORRECT
Brandon Belt - PAN - CORRECT
Ryan Braun - PICK - CORRECT
Jay Bruce - PICK - CORRECT
Billy Butler - PICK - CORRECT
Miguel Cabrera - PICK - CORRECT
Robinson Cano - PICK - CORRECT
Carl Crawford - PICK - INCORRECT
Ryan Doumit - PICK - CORRECT
Adam Dunn - PAN - INCORRECT
Jacoby Ellsbury - PAN - CORRECT
David Freese - PAN - INCORRECT
Curtis Granderson - PAN - INCORRECT
Eric Hosmer - PICK - INCORRECT
Derek Jeter - PAN - INCORRECT
Jesus Montero - PICK - INCORRECT
Justin Morneau - PICK - CORRECT
Martin Prado - PICK - CORRECT
Jayson Werth - PAN - CORRECT
Matt Wieters - PICK - CORRECT

Heath Bell - PAN - CORRECT
Yu Darvish - PAN - INCORRECT
RA Dickey - PICK - CORRECT
Cole Hamels - PICK - CORRECT
Tommy Hanson - PAN - CORRECT
Kenley Jansen - PICK - CORRECT
Ubaldo Jimenez - PAN - CORRECT
Mat Latos - PICK - CORRECT
Matt Moore - PICK - CORRECT
Bud Norris - PICK - INCORRECT
Michael Pineda - PICK - INCORRECT
David Robertson - PICK - INCORRECT
Chris Sale - PICK - CORRECT
Sergio Santos - PICK - INCORRECT
Max Scherzer - PICK - CORRECT
Huston Street - PICK - CORRECT
Justin Verlander - PICK - CORRECT
Jordan Walden - PAN - CORRECT
Jordan Zimmerman - PICK - CORRECT

Jeff

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