[USML Announce] Picks and Pans

Jim Barrett chicagojab at gmail.com
Thu Feb 21 11:46:55 EST 2013


I propose a new rule - last place team brings donuts.

Sent from my iPhone

On Feb 21, 2013, at 11:16 AM, Jeffrey Winick <jwinick at harriswinick.com> wrote:

> 
> 
> “peddle to Brad for a first-rate position player”
>  
> Finally some acknowledgment of the Myers trade.  Or is this a reference to the Trout trade?  Or the Montero trade?  ;-)
>  
> What time are we getting started on the 17th?  And who’s bringing the donuts this year?
>  
> Jeff
>  
>  
> From: announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] On Behalf Of JOHN FRUIT
> Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 4:50 AM
> To: announce at usml.net
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
>  
> sounds like Jeff needs to revert to the security analyst methodology:  strong buy/buy/sell/reduce/neutral/overweight/underweight/peddle to Brad for a first-rate position player.
>  
> To: announce at usml.net
> From: jhwinick at aol.com
> Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2013 20:20:22 -0500
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
> 
> A fair point.  But I think if you read the commentary, it makes it easier to determine whether the Pick/Pan was correct.  For example, Verlander and Cano were picks that were identified as safe bets to put up similar if not better numbers than the prior year.  Those are correct assessments since they did exactly what I predicted they'd do.  Most of time I identified not only that they were a pick or a pan, but I predicted what their performance would be.  My scorecard is based on a comparison of the descriptions as much as the tagline of Pick/Pan.
>  
> Jeff
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker at Sidley.com>
> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
> Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 6:42 pm
> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
> 
> Jeff:  I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results.  The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct.  For example, if you label someone as a “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick “correct”?  I took “pick” to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite.  Otherwise, where is the real expertise?  Thoughts?
>  
> In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit!
>  
>   -- Mark B.
>  
> From: announce-bounces at usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces at usml.net] On Behalf Of Jeffrey Winick
> Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM
> To: announce at usml.net
> Subject: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans
>  
> Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is.
>  
> Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it.  Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting.  There were some real clunkers last year:  (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well:  (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman).
>  
> Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%).  Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).
>  
> Here's the full list:
>  
> Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT
> Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT
> Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT
> Brandon Belt – PAN – CORRECT
> Ryan Braun – PICK – CORRECT
> Jay Bruce – PICK - CORRECT
> Billy Butler – PICK – CORRECT
> Miguel Cabrera – PICK – CORRECT
> Robinson Cano – PICK – CORRECT
> Carl Crawford – PICK – INCORRECT
> Ryan Doumit – PICK – CORRECT
> Adam Dunn – PAN – INCORRECT
> Jacoby Ellsbury – PAN – CORRECT
> David Freese – PAN – INCORRECT
> Curtis Granderson – PAN – INCORRECT
> Eric Hosmer – PICK – INCORRECT
> Derek Jeter – PAN – INCORRECT
> Jesus Montero – PICK – INCORRECT
> Justin Morneau – PICK – CORRECT
> Martin Prado – PICK – CORRECT
> Jayson Werth – PAN – CORRECT
> Matt Wieters – PICK – CORRECT
>  
> Heath Bell – PAN – CORRECT
> Yu Darvish – PAN – INCORRECT
> RA Dickey – PICK – CORRECT
> Cole Hamels – PICK – CORRECT
> Tommy Hanson – PAN – CORRECT
> Kenley Jansen – PICK – CORRECT
> Ubaldo Jimenez – PAN – CORRECT
> Mat Latos – PICK – CORRECT
> Matt Moore – PICK - CORRECT
> Bud Norris – PICK – INCORRECT
> Michael Pineda – PICK – INCORRECT
> David Robertson – PICK – INCORRECT
> Chris Sale – PICK – CORRECT
> Sergio Santos – PICK – INCORRECT
> Max Scherzer – PICK – CORRECT
> Huston Street – PICK – CORRECT
> Justin Verlander – PICK – CORRECT
> Jordan Walden – PAN – CORRECT
> Jordan Zimmerman – PICK - CORRECT
>  
> Jeff
>  
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