[USML Announce] Sabremetric Anomoly

[Frank Luby]

Hi Mark,
If you use the adjusted Bill James Pythagorean for,mula (used by baseball-reference.com), the Cardinals should have a winning percentage of .640 and have 59 wins right now. In reality that have 58 wins, so they are performing in line with their run differential and their very strong pitching. (Not all run differentials are the same; the Jays' is qualitatively much worse because they give too many runs)
The Blue Jays should be playing .589 ball and should have 55 wins vs. their current 47. This gap is often explained by bad luck (or a horrible bullpen), which manifests itself in a bad record in close games. Through the end of May, the Jays were 5-15 in games decided by one or two runs. 
That may explain the discrepancy. 
Thoughts?
Best wishes from Area 51 (as in 51-111 in honor of the 2013 Astros and the 2015 Lubeasts)
- Frank
Why are the Jays terrible in close games this century?

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| Why are the Jays terrible in close games this century?It should come as no surprise to anyone who's paid much attention to the Jays this year that they've got an awful record in close games. With yesterday's 10th innin... |
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     On Tuesday, July 21, 2015 6:10 PM, Mark Blocker <blockermark at gmail.com> wrote:
   

 Jeff/others:
  Just curious about the following statistic.  The Toronto Blue Jays have outscored their opponents by 89 runs (and have scored 80 more runs than any other team in baseball), yet have a .500 record.  For comparison, the St. Louis Cardinals are plus 100, but they are 24 games over .500.  The Toronto stat has to be some sort of record-setting anomaly.  How could that be?
  -- Mark
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