April 18, 2011 at 12:00 am #2542
Let’s break down Winick’s analysis into understandable parts.
Bear in mind, Winick sees his own team finishing 4th, notwithstanding that: (i) he has no closer; (ii) his pitching points depend on “solid youngsters” such as Harrison, Porcello, and Francis; and (iii) there are “some holes in this offense” (i.e., not one hitter likely to smack 20 home runs this season). Of course, Jeffrey expects to repair this damage by trading away his cheap keepers–more on that later.
If Jeffrey is this delusional about his own team, query what he says about yours. But let’s have a looksie at his conclusions: Hoosier Dads, Riptorns, Bombers, Nukes: These teams have no chance and should dump immediately–presumably, to Jeffrey.
Brats: This team doesn’t have talent to win it, but shouldn’t dump either. Just sit still and behave yourself.
AYM, Red Hots and LMC: These teams could win this year but don’t have the stones to trade keepers.
K-9: “Top offensive team…[with] more than enough pitching points to put it over the top.” Uh-huh. Right….
Berliners: “This team has the gumption to pull off the key deals necessary to make a run at it….”
So, for the benefit of us who should dump, let’s take a look at the purported keepers on the teams Jeffrey says are racing to the top:
K-9: Unless you think Francoeur and Ortiz fit your needs for next year, that active roster has nothing–nada–worth dumping for. Reserve list offers little. Lars Anderson is overhyped and has no position on the big club. Segura is a ways off and light hitter. Sanchez yet another Yankee catcher….only one worth note is Pomeranz. Yippee. As K-9’s mediocre pitching brings points total down to earth, K-9 can only pray that Jeffrey is correct about LMC, MRH and AYM. But let’s look at these teams anyway….
LMC: Lowrie nice hitter but where will he play when Iglesias makes team–that glove work is problematic–he’s trade bait for a starting pitcher, so be careful with that one. Carter’s contract already running and As still don’t like that big swing of his. Boils down to the Moustakas and Lamb….and Great Britton, too. Nathan worth a flier as well. So, will LMC prove Winick right and let K-9 slither into 2011 championship seat?
MRH: Davis (if legs still strong), Gordon, Santana, Price, Hosmer, and I’m sure there’s more deep sleepers in there. But Jeffrey says MRH cannot let go of these guys….but some nice talent there. Rich stays awake nights wondering if he can catch K-9 without trading any of these guys….can he?
AYM: Again, Jeffrey says AYM stand down this year, but if not: Ackley, Conger, Cain, Hellickson….and throw in Hoes and a Fister and you know you’ll have a good time with these keepers. But as Jeffrey says: faggadaboutit.
Berliners: Last and least. Let Jeffrey prattle on about his great keepers, but please, take a close and reasonable look: Austin Jackson’s whopping strikeout rate already has cost him a leadoff spot–to Will Rhymes!! And Justin Smoak looks like the AL West’s version of James Loney. No thanks. The farm system has nice talent but it’s too expensive and far off: Trout-15; Machado-10; Myers-10; Montgomery-10. That leaves you with two $5 twirlers: White and Moore. Take your chances? No thanks.
Bottom line: Berliners will finish lower than Riptorns and K-9 wins only if the Red Hots and/or LMC don’t deal. That’s my prediction.
See you in October!
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